Hello and welcome. My name is Sophia Bash and you're listening to the CER podcast.

Hello, I'm in conversation today with Charles Grant, who's the director at the Center for European Reform,

and we're here to talk about Prime Minister Theresa May's emerging Brexit deal.

Charles has a better idea than most.

I think where negotiations on Brexit are going to go,

and that's partly because he is in close contact,

not just with the senior decision makers in the UK,

but also all over Europe.

So Charles, the first question to perhaps set the scene a

little bit, when you go to Brussels and you speak to EU officials, would you say that they are

optimistic about the deal that Theresa May will be able to negotiate? Will she be able to implement

her plan to leave the single market in the customs union and get a free trade

arrangement? Many of the officials I talked to in Brussels and in other European capitals are quite

gloomy about the prospect of Mrs May getting the deal she wants, namely an Article 50,

divorce settlement in two years, followed by a free trade agreement with some

sort of transitional mechanism leading to that free trade agreement.

They're gloomy because they worry about the ability of the British government to understand

what is at stake, to understand how weak its cards are in some respects, to understand the legal, technical, financial complexities

involved, they see comments from British ministers and senior politicians in London that are very

sort of gung-ho and optimistic and enthusiastic, saying we can go for it, we're determined,

we've got political will, we're clever, we can get a good deal

because our partners wouldn't dare to give us a bad deal because it would hurt their economies.

...