meta_pixel
Tapesearch Logo
Log in
Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Central Bank Independence

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 13 August 2019

⏱️ 25 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The US Federal Reserve’s sharp pivot toward easing amid substantial White House pressure has raised concerns about central bank independence, as have developments in other advanced and emerging market economies alike. How worried we should be about this threat—and its implications for policy, the economy, and markets—is Top of Mind. In this episode, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan interviews former central bankers Donald Kohn and Sir Paul Tucker who explain why central bank independence is critical to maintaining price and financial stability—even today when too little, rather than too much, inflation is the main problem. But while Kohn is concerned that Trump’s overt pressure could undermine Fed credibility, Tucker worries more that over-reliance on central banks since the GFC has left them vulnerable to politicization. Nathan also speaks with the firm’s chief economist Jan Hatzius who does not believe the Fed has responded directly to pressure from the White House, but does think that political pressure could already be influencing Fed policy through indirect channels such as bond market pricing. That said, Hatzius argues this in itself shouldn’t inflict too much harm on the economy unless inflationary pressures rise materially. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

From Goldman Sachs Research, this is Alison Nathan. Welcome to Top of Mind, a podcast that explores macroeconomic issues on the minds of our clients.

0:12.6

In this episode, we're taking a look at growing concerns about the independence of central banks around the world.

0:23.3

Here in the U.S., that independence has been threatened by President Trump's clear disapproval of the Fed.

0:29.0

Let's put it this way.

0:30.4

He's equated the Fed to a golfer who can't putt and called its logic faulty.

0:34.9

Now, White House pressure on the Fed to lower rates isn't anything new. We saw

0:38.9

this more than once back in the 70s and 80s. But this time around, President Trump's

0:43.7

criticism has been unusually vocal, unrelenting, and basically a mainstay on his Twitter feed.

0:49.7

We're going to be breaking records if we had a Fed that would lower interest rates would be like a rocket ship.

0:55.8

But we're paying a lot of interest and it's unnecessary, but we don't have a Fed that knows what

1:00.6

they're doing. Despite the very public criticism, Fed Chairman Jay Powell insists it's not

1:06.1

influencing the Fed's decisions. Here he is at the press conference last month after the Fed cut interest rates

1:12.1

for the first time in over a decade. We never take into account political considerations.

1:16.7

There's no place in our discussions for that. We also don't conduct monetary policy in order

1:20.7

to prove our independence. But it's not just the U.S. where there might be cause for worry.

1:25.5

The effectiveness and credibility of monetary policy

1:28.2

have been called into question across advanced economies, thanks to slow growth, a rise in

1:33.0

populism, and the potential need for more coordination between monetary and fiscal policy

1:37.9

in a world of already low interest rates. These concerns were somewhat reinforced by the appointment

1:43.5

of Christine Lagarde, a politician

1:45.6

rather than a central banker, as the next president of the European Central Bank. And the challenges

1:50.9

of resisting political influence are even more acute in emerging markets, where central banks are

...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Goldman Sachs, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Goldman Sachs and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.

Copyright © Tapesearch 2025.