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Sinica Podcast

Carnegie's Tong Zhao on the Expansion of China's Nuclear Arsenal

Sinica Podcast

Kaiser Kuo

Culture, China News, Hangzhou, Chinese, International Relations, Chongqing, Beijing, Sichuan, Currentaffairs, China, Politics, Chengdu, Shanghai, Guangzhou, China Economy, News, China Politics, Business, Film, Shenzhen

4.8676 Ratings

🗓️ 25 June 2025

⏱️ 70 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This week on Sinica, in a show taped in early June in Washington, Kaiser chats with Tong Zhao (赵通) of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a leading expert on Chinese nuclear doctrine, about why the PRC has, in recent years, significantly increased the size of its nuclear arsenal. Zhao offers a master class in the practice of strategic empathy.

03:12 – China’s nuclear doctrine: core principles

06:56 – Xi Jinping’s leadership and nuclear policy

12:33 – Symbolism vs. strategy: Defensive or offensive buildup?

16:55 – What’s driving the nuclear expansion?

28:33 – Trump’s second term: Impact on China’s strategic thinking

34:34 – Nukes and Taiwan

41:45 – Washington and Beijing nuclear doctrines perceptions

48:04 - China’s perspective on the Golden Dome program

52:32 - China’s Stance on North Korea’s nuclear program 

01:01:00 - Beijing’s View on North Korean troops in Ukraine


Paying it forwardDavid Logan, at Tufts University

Recommendations:

Tong:  Yellowstone, TV series 

Kaiser: Gomorrah, TV series 

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to the Cynica podcast, the weekly discussion of current affairs in China.

0:13.2

In this program, we'll look at books, ideas, new research, intellectual currents, and cultural trends

0:18.3

that can help us better understand what's happening in

0:20.9

China's politics, foreign relations, economics, and society. Join me each week for in-depth

0:26.5

conversations that shed more light and bring less heat to how we think and talk about China.

0:32.6

I'm Kaiser Guo coming to you today from Washington, D.C. Cynica is supported this year by the Center for East Asian Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison,

0:40.9

a National Resource Center for the Study of East Asia.

0:44.0

The Cynica podcast will remain free, but if you work for an organization that believes in what I'm doing with the show,

0:49.8

please consider lending your support.

0:51.3

You can get me at Cinecapod.od at gmail.com. And listeners, please

0:56.4

support my work at www.cicabodcast.com. Become a paying subscriber and enjoy, in addition to the

1:03.4

podcast, the complete transcript of the show, essays from me, as well as writings and podcasts from

1:08.6

some of your favorite China-focused columnists and commentators.

1:12.2

Do check out the page to see all that's on offer and consider helping me out.

1:16.4

Be sure also to check out the new show China Talking Points, now available on YouTube

1:20.5

and streaming live every other week.

1:24.2

I've spent the last couple of days here in Washington at the offices of the Carnegie Endowment

1:27.8

for International Peace, participating in a two-day workshop on U.S.-China strategic communications

1:32.7

around nuclear risk organized by rethink media. It's a topic that, frankly, gets surprisingly

1:38.6

little attention, but really there's no dimension of the U.S.-China relationship where genuine

1:44.1

strategic empathy is more critical.

1:47.1

It's not just about putting ourselves in the others' shoes, as it were, but really attempting real cognitive empathy,

...

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