Hello and welcome to The Spectator's Americano podcast, a special series of discussions about the biggest political event of this year, the 2016 US presidential election.

My name is Freddie Gray and I'm Deputy Edger of The Spectator, and I'm joined by Kate Andrews from Republicans overseas UK, and down the line from New York, Michael Brendan Doherty, the Conservative writer

and a columnist for the US edition of the week.

And in this edition, we'll be asking the dread question on everybody's lips.

Can Donald Trump actually win this thing?

The odds on a Trump presidency have been shortening for weeks.

Most bookmakers are now offering something like six to four on him reaching the White House, whereas he could have got over

100 to one just over a year ago. And that's because the polls have shown him catching Hillary

Clinton, not just nationally, but also in crucial swing states like Ohio and briefly this week in

Florida.

So, Kate, do you, first of all, do you think Donald Trump can actually win?

And secondly, do you in any way want him to win?

We've been talking about how this is Hillary Clinton's race to lose,

and now I think it's borderline Donald Trump's race to win.

The polls are getting much, much closer. And I think as you did see over here during the Brexit vote, as you even saw in 2012, the polls did slightly overestimate the left.

Barack Obama did win in the end, but it was closer than a lot of people thought it might be.

I think there's a real possibility for Donald

Trump to win. If you look at where the swing states are right now, places like Florida and

Ohio are looking quite red. They're looking like they're leaning towards the Republicans. Now,

a lot can happen in six weeks. I'm not sure Florida will stay in Donald Trump's camp, but I think

a lot of this could come down to the debates. If he appears presidential and competent in any way, I think he could actually win over more support.

Do I want it to happen? I'm going to be depressed on November 9th either way.

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