What is the role of scientific prediction? Well, there are different explanations for why societies

get into end times. And they propose often the opposite mechanisms for the observed data.

So what we need to do, what is the scientific approach, is that we take those explanations, translate

them into mathematical theories. That's very important because human societies are dynamical

systems with many interlinked parts. And understanding how different little

nudges of pushes result in different outcomes requires mathematical apparatus.

It is my distinct pleasure to welcome to the podcast. One of my favorite thinkers on societies coming

apart. Yes, that's actually a field now thanks to him, University of Connecticut Professor

and author of the new book End Times, elites, counter elites and the path of political disintegration.

Peter, Turchin, welcome, Peter. Thank you, Andrew. Peter, I cited your book, Age of Discord,

in my last two books. You have somehow gotten yourself wrapped up in the dissolution, disintegration

of societies. But you came to this from a completely different discipline. You came it from,

I want to say as an ecologist and a study of systems. Can you talk about how you wound up in this

field? Yes, I was trained as a theoretical biologist and I worked on population cycles in insects,

mice, deer and lemmings. And when I turned 40, I essentially had a midlife crisis,

but instead of divorcing my wife, I divorced my science and married a new one.

Essentially, I wanted to see it. I wanted to encounter some challenges and studying history

from the point of view of complexity science sounded like a challenge enough for me. And that's

what I've been doing for the past 25 years. And so you've helped to start a new field that's

called CleoDynamics. Can you describe what CleoDynamics is? Yes, essentially, when I started working

in, became interested in history, I realized that history was the last subject that has not yet

been methamatized. Other social sciences, especially economics, but also political science

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