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More or Less: Behind the Stats

Can China?s GDP data be trusted?

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.63.5K Ratings

🗓️ 29 October 2022

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This week, China released its third quarter GDP figure. At 3.9%, its rate of economic growth is better than many analysts expected, but still significantly short of the 5.5% target the Chinese government had set itself.

There was an unprecedented delay in releasing this particular GDP stat - and that delay coincided with the 20th Chinese Communist Party congress. President Xi Jinping was reappointed for a historic third term at the twice-a-decade gathering.

Some analysts found the delay suspicious. Did President Xi postpone the release of the GDP figures so it wouldn?t tarnish the congress? And can the figure of 3.9 per cent be trusted anyway?

Paul Connolly investigates with the help of John Burn Murdoch, Chief Data Reporter at The Financial Times; Associate Professor of Government at Cornell, Jeremy Lee Wallace and Dr Linda Yueh, Oxford University economist and author.

Presenter and Producer: Paul Connolly Editor: Simon Watts Programme Coordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Neva Missirian

(Image: Chinese President Xi Jinping: Mark R Cristino/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

Transcript

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0:00.0

Why do some big successful brands go bust?

0:05.0

Toast is back for a new series, taking a look at the decisions that often left investors burnt.

0:11.0

I'm Sean Farrington, a BBC business journalist. I'll be hearing about the hype.

0:15.0

They're going to do the deal that makes them the most money at that point of time.

0:19.0

And I'm picking what went wrong, talking to owners and employees to ask, what can we learn?

0:25.4

It was being undercut by similar rivals.

0:28.5

It just couldn't survive.

0:30.3

Toast. Listen first on BBC Sounds.

0:41.8

Hello, welcome and thanks for downloading the more or less podcast.

0:49.0

We are, you might say, your weekly touchstone for the numbers in the news and elsewhere in life that either tickle your curiosity or sound your inner alarm.

0:54.7

This week's number is 3.9%.

0:57.6

That's China's third quarter GDP figure, which, in fairness, was better than many analysts expected,

1:03.4

but still significantly short of the 5.5% target they had set themselves.

1:09.5

Quick explainer stroke reminder to get out of the way here. GDP

1:13.4

stands for gross domestic product. In brief, it pins a number to the output of an economy and

1:18.8

is supposed to tell us how big that economy is, along with whether or not it's growing.

1:25.7

Now, there was an unprecedented delay in releasing this particular GDP stat

1:30.7

and that delay coincided with what's called the 20th Party Congress.

1:37.0

A by all accounts Gloom affair where top brass from China's ruling Communist Party,

1:42.0

the CCP, got together to, amongst other things, re-elect,

1:45.6

or some might say, re-enoint, their leader.

1:48.4

Xi Jinping has become the most powerful leader in China in decades after being given...

...

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