Cam Harvey - This is a Time of Considerable Risk of a Drawdown | #172

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

The Idea Farm

Investing, Management, Business

4.8 • 978 Ratings

🗓️ 28 August 2019

⏱️ 107 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In episode 172, we welcome our guest, professor Cam Harvey. Meb and professor Harvey begin the conversation with professor Harvey’s 1986 dissertation on the yield curve, and his finding that when the yield curve inverts, it precedes a recession. His indicator has yet to provide a false signal. He goes on to explain the model, what it really tells us, and the implications as we move late into the summer of 2019. Professor Harvey then gets into what an inverted yield curve means for growth, and a study he did that describes the performance of various asset classes before and after yield curve inversions. He follows up with some background on the Duke CFO survey, and the predictive power it has in foreshadowing recession. As of a recent observation, 85% of respondents believe a recession will begin in 2020 or 2021. The conversation shifts, and professor Harvey gets into some thoughts on cryptocurrency, and the research that went into the creation of his course on Blockchain. Next, professor Harvey explains blunders in factor investing, from data mining, to investors not taking correlation of factors into consideration. As the conversation winds down, professor Harvey discusses what he’s thinking about in his research these days, and disruptions he sees coming in finance. All this and more in episode 172, including professor Harvey’s most memorable investment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Mebb Faver Show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth.
0:12.6	Join us as we discuss the craft of investing
0:15.6	and uncover new and profitable ideas,
0:18.4	all to help you grow wealthier and wiser.
0:20.8	Better investing starts here.
0:23.0	Mepp Faber is the co-founder and chief investment officer at Cambria Investment Management.
0:31.0	Due to industry regulations, he will not discuss any of Cambria's funds on this podcast.
0:36.7	All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not
0:41.0	reflect the opinion of Cambria Investment Management or its affiliates.
0:44.8	For more information, visit cambria Investments.com.
0:48.0	Hey podcast listeners, welcome, it's full on summertime. We have today an awesome show for you
0:56.4	We got a dukee here professor of finance at Fuqua right down the road for me. He's trying to escape the humidity flu
1:03.2	us to in office Los Angeles Professor Cam Harvey. Welcome the show.
1:08.0	Great to be on the show.
1:09.0	Cam I used to have this fantasy and I'm sure most people do about being a teacher and a professor
1:15.8	where you just spend the summer on the beach, sipping a pina collata, you're out here hustling,
1:22.0	writing papers. I mean I stop counting at over a hundred at this point. How's the summer going?
1:26.2	Yeah, the summer actually is the time interesting enough. People think that you're in the beach, but no this is the time to do your research and that's the main thing you can pay for is research.
1:37.1	I always say that about taking a summer sabbatical and getting writing done and it seems to never happen. I now have a two-year-old so he's kind of
1:46.8	becoming the problem I think but writing for me I don't know I feel like
1:50.9	summer's the hardest but we're here in the Los Angeles at the beach so I don't know well
1:55.0	welcome it's great to have you we got to start out you you might be sick of talking about this
	...

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