Buy the Election, Sell the Inauguration

The Compound and Friends

Josh Brown

News, Business, Business News, Investing

4.8 • 1.9K Ratings

🗓️ 15 November 2024

⏱️ 73 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On episode 166 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Adam Parker to discuss: the biggest risks to the market, David Einhorn on valuations, the Fed's next move, the dumbest chart ever, and much more! This episode is sponsored by KraneShares! Watch their post-election webinar with Terry Branstad at: http://kraneshares.com/compound Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out! Instagram: https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	We talked about it when we were together on election night, Josh and I, that like the
0:03.7	polymarket was right everywhere and the poll. I don't know who's going to believe a poll
0:07.2	ever again. So I'm a bigger boomer than you because I had the New York Times needle on my screen.
0:11.9	You're younger than me? Is that what you're doing? You're flexing your youthfulness already.
0:15.9	No, I was the boomer that night. I was looking at the needle. You were looking at currency markets and
0:21.0	Polymarket. Mexico, a dollar cross. You were looking at, he was looking at pesos to tell me who
0:26.2	was going to win the election. That's the market. And he got it. Well, Polymarket is going to be a
0:29.7	much bigger company in the future. The question is interesting, because there's a lot of economic
0:33.6	day that we all react to that is survey based. Yeah. So if polling and surveying is now worth zero, worth less.
0:41.4	And you can, maybe we'll just polymarket like CEO confidence, Michigan consumer
0:46.1	comp, like maybe you'll just be able to gamble on everything, right?
0:49.0	Don't tell me what you think should be your portfolio.
0:50.7	Right.
0:51.0	Right.
0:51.1	Yeah.
0:51.4	You can gamble right now on whether I think like, like, the, I saw this in the
0:55.4	Polymarket earlier today on, like, does it take 100 days for the, you know, a war to end? Does it take,
1:01.7	you know, 14% of Ukraine ends before Trump? Like, there's a lot of increased interest in polymarket,
1:08.0	you know, situations. I think in the midterms, Polymarket is going to be way more cited than people like Nate Silver.
1:13.9	So what we did is we, and this is super nerdy, but we looked at the, since the day that
1:21.4	Biden announced he was out and then the Trump first assassination attempt, we looked at the daily
1:25.6	change in the polymarket probabilities for the candidates
	...

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