Bright Spots in Emerging Markets

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 3 June 2016

⏱️ 24 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

A better external backdrop is just part of the reason why emerging market assets have surprised in the first half of 2016. Kamakshya Trivedi, chief Emerging Markets macro strategist in Goldman Sachs Research, considers the local and global factors influencing asset prices in developing economies around the world, including China, Brazil and India. This podcast was recorded on May 17, 2016. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2016 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is exchanges at Goldman Sachs, where people from our firm share their insights on developments
0:13.6	currently shaping markets, industries, and the global economy.
0:17.0	I'm Jake Stewart, Global Head of Corporate Communications here at the firm.
0:20.8	One of the years biggest surprises has been the rally in emerging market assets,
0:24.6	which have seen a pronounced uptick in investor interest amid a global search for yield.
0:28.8	To discuss what's been driving this activity in the outlook from here.
0:32.8	I'm joined by Kamaxha Trevetti, the chief emerging market macro strategist in Goldman Sachs research.
0:38.6	KT, welcome to the program.
0:40.8	Thank you.
0:41.8	Thanks for having me.
0:42.4	So heading into the year you and your team
0:43.8	identify the following key risks for EMs. China's deceleration, the
0:49.2	normalization of interest rates here in the US, and lower for longer commodity pricing.
0:54.0	So flash forward to today and most people believe China is in a better position than it was
0:58.0	at the start of the year.
0:59.5	The Fed's looking like it's taking a more dovish approach on rates and oil's been rising.
1:05.7	Does this explain the EM rally?
1:07.7	I think it is a big part of the explanation.
1:10.1	I think if you look at the past three to four months I think you've had a cocktail of
1:15.3	circumstances which have been unusually friendly to emerging market assets like you
1:20.1	mentioned I think the fears around an abrupt evaluation in China abated.
1:25.1	China's growth data actually looked like it was improving for a while.
	...

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