Brexit, the British exit from the European Union.

It's a thing that's happening.

Or maybe not?

Or maybe the United Kingdom is falling apart.

There's a lot going on, so let's talk about Brexit briefly.

First, how do we get here?

In the UK voters for UK-IpIP, the UK Independence Party grew in number over the last few elections.

Now, because the United Kingdom uses a terrible in-or-out referendum on the EU if they won,

presumably to try and sway UK voters to their side.

The Conservatives did win, in what was, by the way, the most unrepresentative election in UK history,

thanks again first past the post, click here for more details, and the promised referendum was scheduled.

With huge voter turnout, Brexit won 52 to 48. So what happens next?

Well, the EU has a law called Article 50 saying countries can exit. Basically, it's a press

here to leave button. But the Conservative Prime Minister who promised upon Brexit victory to press it

immediately, instead resigned immediately, leaving the UK politically doing nothing. There was talk of a

second Brexit, no but seriously, it might actually happen if you vote for, this one's legally binding referendum, or re-electing Parliament.

But then the new UK Prime Minister was appointed and she said that wouldn't happen.

Presumably, the UK Parliament now needs to pass a yes, we are really pressing the Brexit button it, but the UK wants to pre-decide all the details of what an independent UK's relationship with the EU would look like, but the EU doesn't want to talk until the UK actually leaves.

Not surprising because talking before gives negotiating advantage to the UK and talking after to the EU.

And since the EU can't force the UK to press the button, there's a sort of negotiating stalemate.

Finally, because there's really no procedure for anything,

the only correct answer to what happens next is, who knows? We are standing in a fog with naught but speculation. So, speculation time. Acting as a Brexit bookie, I'm putting

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