Brexit: After the Vote

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 28 June 2016

⏱️ 28 minutes

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Summary

The UK's vote to leave the EU sets in motion a series of complex adjustments for the UK and Europe that will take years to play out. Huw Pill, chief European economist in Goldman Sachs Research, discusses the economic and market implications of the Brexit vote. This podcast was recorded on June 27, 2016. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2016 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is exchanges at Goldman Sachs where people from our firm share their insights on developments
0:13.2	currently shaping markets, industries, and the global economy.
0:16.4	I'm Jake Seaward, Global Head of Corporate Communications here at the firm.
0:19.8	The UK's vote to leave the European Union has reverberated around the world.
0:24.4	Hugh Pill, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, is here to help us make sense of the ramifications of a Brexit.
0:30.8	Hugh, welcome to the program.
0:32.0	Thank you very much.
0:33.2	So Hugh, the UK's referendum on whether leave the EU was top-of-mind issue for months, but this
0:38.2	vote to leave still took many people by surprise.
0:41.0	How would you characterize the early market response to the Brexit vote?
0:44.6	Well, clearly, many UK asset prices, not least the exchange rate, moved quite dramatically
0:50.6	on Friday morning as we progressively saw the results coming in and growing
0:56.6	likelihood and eventually the reality that we were going to see a vote to leave
1:00.4	rather than remain. It was true that markets had rallied ahead of that, equity markets, the pound and strengthened,
1:09.0	in expectation of a remain vote, and maybe there was a little bit of complacency on the side of
1:15.5	markets that that would be the outcome. So we saw very dramatic reactions which
1:20.1	largely unwound the previous run-up.
1:23.7	If you look at a slightly longer perspective,
1:26.1	maybe across the two weeks surrounding the referendum,
1:29.0	I think probably there you see less dramatic moves, and then we've seen a sort of subsequent sell-off over the
1:36.4	last couple of days which have moved us further on. What I would say though is
1:40.6	probably what's been encouraging or at least somewhat reassuring relative
	...

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