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BREAKDOWN: 'The Fed Meetings Are a Dead Spectator Sport' - Best of The Breakdown September 2020

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4.8689 Ratings

🗓️ 3 October 2020

⏱️ 17 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

A monthly recap featuring conversations with Luke Gromen, Raoul Pal, Tavi Costa, Sven Henrich, Corey Hoffstein and Michael Saylor.

This episode is sponsored by Crypto.comNexo.io and Elliptic.co.

A recap of September, which NLW calls a transitional month between the post-lockdown excitement of the summer and the growing macro insecurity around second wave fears and election volatility. 

Featuring some of the most interesting insights from our guests, including:

  • Luke Gromen on the four options for countries that can’t pay their debts
  • Tavi Costa on the Fed’s new “mandate” to keep asset prices high 
  • Raoul Pal on why “monetary policy is over” 
  • Sven Henrich on the ever-weakening economic cycle
  • Corey Hoffstein on the fundamental supply-demand mismatch that exacerbates exogenous shocks
  • Michael Saylor on why he moved his company’s cash reserves to bitcoin 

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

0:08.2

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

0:14.0

The breakdown is sponsored by crypto.com, nexo.io, an elliptic, and produced and distributed by CoinDesk.

0:23.2

What's going on, guys? It is Saturday, October 3rd, and that means it's time for the

0:28.7

breakdown weekly recap. However, because it is the first Saturday of the month, instead of the

0:35.9

weekly recap, we're going to do the monthly recap.

0:39.6

September was an interesting transitional moment. You had a real sense of almost in-betweenness or

0:47.9

liminality creep into the major discourse, and moreover creep into the sentiment. And what I mean by that is that you had

0:55.4

seen a summer where we were charging back after the spring's COVID-19 related shutdowns,

1:00.9

but the fall was starting to hit a different note. On the one hand, that had to do with the fear

1:07.4

of a rise or a return or a second wave of COVID-19. On the other, it just had to do with

1:13.2

the end of the easy phase of a recovery where the jobs that were coming back were much harder

1:19.0

won, not just the things that had been lost immediately in the short term. Layer on top of that,

1:25.1

the fear or nervousness or just general lack of clarity that comes with

1:29.8

a presidential election. And you had the right sort of mixture for a big question mark, let's say.

1:37.1

My guests in September, I think articulated from a macro perspective a lot of that that in-betweenness with a special emphasis on

1:46.7

the immobility, really, of the Federal Reserve, this central actor in the economic system we've

1:52.7

constructed, to actually move and change things, both in the short term and in the long term.

1:58.6

Let's kick our conversation off where we kicked off September as a

2:02.4

month with Luke Groman. In this clip, he gives us a clear-eyed look at the options from here,

2:10.0

with the here being a debt burden that we can't possibly pay back. To me, the punchline is that if you

2:17.1

look back over the last 100, 120 years, any time you

...

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