BREAKDOWN: Bull vs. Bear... Who Has the Economy Right?
CoinDesk Podcast Network
CoinDesk
4.8 • 689 Ratings
🗓️ 24 June 2020
⏱️ 24 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The economy is nothing if not confounding right now.
This episode is sponsored by Bitstamp and Ciphertrace.
Across every domain, from real estate to oil to retail, there are bull signals and bear signals.
In this episode, NLW looks at those signals in the following areas:
- Markets - strong stock recovery vs. growth in cash deposits
- Employment - growth in jobs vs. persistent continuing jobless claims
- Retail - growth in foot traffic vs. demand destruction
- Oil - growth in demand (but not in economically productive diesel)
- Real estate - surge in mortgage applications vs. worst home sales since 2010
- Dollar - declining confidence vs. there is no alternative
- COVID-19 - reduced death rates in the U.S. vs. growing caseload
What’s the answer? Is this just a narrative mirage recovery? Listen and find out.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome back to the breakdown, an everyday analysis breaking down the most important stories in Bitcoin, crypto, and beyond. |
| 0:13.0 | This episode is sponsored by BitStamp and Cipher Trace. The breakdown is produced and distributed by Coin Desk. And now here's your host, NLW. |
| 0:28.0 | Welcome back to The Breakdown. It is Wednesday, June 24th, and today we actually don't have a brief. |
| 0:35.3 | And the reason for that is that our main discussion is a question that I think |
| 0:39.2 | many people have been grappling with, which is, who has the economy right? Is it the bears or the |
| 0:44.8 | bulls? What are the signals telling us across all these different economic domains? And what do we |
| 0:49.8 | do with that information? I have seen so much confusion and contradiction in market data that |
| 0:57.1 | I wanted to spend an entire episode just looking across that category by category and seeing |
| 1:02.8 | what we might be able to figure out. And that really crowds out a lot of the space for what I would |
| 1:06.4 | normally cover on the brief because it's going to be included in this. I think this point was really |
| 1:11.4 | finally made yesterday when I asked my guest Tracy Schuchart if she had contrarian opinions. And she |
| 1:17.2 | basically said, what's a contrarian opinion right now when there's no conventional wisdom, |
| 1:21.8 | there's no consensus, there's just debates and data, and much of that data is bad and we just |
| 1:27.2 | don't know. So hopefully this session, |
| 1:29.7 | this episode, is a chance to dig a little bit deeper across a number of different categories. |
| 1:35.2 | First up, let's look at the markets themselves. I think that anyone will tell you that if there's |
| 1:40.1 | a clear place where a V-shaped recovery is showing up, it's in the equities markets. They have |
| 1:46.0 | recovered a lot better than most people expected. I remember a tweet from Meltem de Mirrors |
| 1:50.6 | from coin shares a couple weeks ago that basically threw her hands up and said, you guys, you beat me. |
| 1:55.7 | I didn't think it was going to be this crazy a rip-up, but here it is. This is a V-shaped recovery. |
| 2:01.9 | This is embodied, obviously, as well in the Dave Portnoy-Davy-Day trader effect, where stocks only go up. And his |
| 2:08.3 | kind of explanation of the fact that once he realized that the game was rigged, he just started |
... |
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