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BREAKDOWN: 6 Things Jobless Claims Tell Us About the State of the Real Economy

CoinDesk Podcast Network

CoinDesk

Cryptocurrencies, Cryptocurrency, Dlt, Tokenization, Coindesk, Distributed Ledger, Blockchain, Tech News, Business News, Ethereum, Bitcoin, News, Digitalassets, Daily News, Decentralization, Defi, Crypto, Business

4.8689 Ratings

🗓️ 18 June 2020

⏱️ 25 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Persistent unemployment and fears of further layoffs are the real economic counterpoint to the financial market’s unbridled enthusiasm. 

This episode is sponsored by Bitstamp and Ciphertrace.

Today on the Brief: 

  • Powell says private companies shouldn’t be involved in Central Bank Digital Currencies
  • According to former NSA head John Bolton, Trump told Mnuchin to go after Bitcoin
  • Interest around Compound driving speculation around a DeFi-driven bull run 


Our main topic: 

This week’s U.S. jobless report brought bad news. Whereas economists had expected new claims to fall to 1.29 million from 1.57 million the week before, claims fell just 58,000 to 1.51 million. 

Continuing claims fared even worse. Economists predicted these claims would fall 600,000+ to 19.9 million. Instead, they fell a tenth of that - 62,000 - to leave total continuing claims at 20.5 million.

In this episode, NLW breaks down what we can learn from these numbers when they’re combined with the previously released May jobs report. 

  • Mixed signals confusing analysis 
  • Economic pain not (only) a short-term shock
  • Demand destruction an open question
  • White-collar jobs may be next
  • Short-term pain has long-term effects (see: 106 million loans in relief)
  • There is a relationship between unemployment and the markets

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome back to the breakdown, an everyday analysis breaking down the most important stories in Bitcoin, crypto, and beyond.

0:13.0

This episode is sponsored by BitStamp and Cipher Trace. The breakdown is produced and distributed by Coindesk.

0:23.0

And now, here's your host, NLW.

0:28.0

Welcome back to The Breakdown.

0:30.0

It is Thursday, June 18th, and today our main discussion is about jobless claims, and more specifically, what jobless claims can actually tell us about

0:39.1

the real economy. But before that, the brief. First up on the brief, Jerome Powell says

0:44.7

private entities shouldn't help design central bank digital currencies. So first, what happened?

0:50.9

In testimony yesterday before Congress, Republican representative Tom Emmer from Minnesota

0:55.4

asked Fed Chair Jerome Powell about recommendations from Christopher Giancarlo's Digital Dollar Project

1:01.4

that any digital dollar be issued by the Fed but designed in partnership with the private sector.

1:08.0

Powell responded pretty strongly that he did not believe that the private sector

1:11.8

really had a role here. He said, I do think that this is something the central banks have to

1:16.1

design. The private sector is not involved in creating the money supply. That's something the

1:19.9

central bank does. He also went on to say that he didn't believe that the general public would

1:24.6

be receptive to these sort of private actors being involved

1:28.5

because private employees who are responsible for the money supply are not accountable to

1:32.8

what Powell called the public good.

1:35.2

So why is this interesting?

1:36.7

Well, the answer to how a digital dollar gets designed and more specifically what role the

1:41.6

private sector has in it has a pretty outsized impact on both

1:44.8

the shape and timing of when we'd see a digital dollar, to say nothing of the processes by which it was

1:50.6

managed. So I actually think that this question of what role the private sector has to play in a

...

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