4.8 • 689 Ratings
🗓️ 24 April 2021
⏱️ 10 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
The story of the week was the Tale of Two Dips.
This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io.
On this edition of “The Weekly Recap,” NLW looks at the twin dips that shaped the week. He argues that one upshot is the dips may have taken the wind out of the sales of some very 2017-esque froth that threatened the entire industry.
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0:00.0 | Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. |
0:08.9 | It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. |
0:15.9 | The breakdown is sponsored by nexo.io and produced and distributed by CoinDes. |
0:24.2 | What's going on, guys? It is Saturday, April 24th, and that means it's time for the weekly recap. This week was the story of |
0:31.6 | two dips. The first actually happened last weekend, Saturday night late East Coast time, to be exact. Between 1115 and 1135, |
0:40.9 | the price of Bitcoin fell 12.3 percent, from about 58,500 to 51,300. I did a whole show about this |
0:50.3 | on Monday. Basically, Twitter raced to give it a narrative explanation. They pointed to a rumor |
0:57.8 | tweet from FX hedgers that the Treasury Department was going after a number of firms for money |
1:02.3 | laundering with crypto. That tweet came about 30 minutes before, so there was, I suppose, |
1:07.1 | some evidence to the causality. They also pointed to a significant decrease in hash rate |
1:13.1 | after a slew of Chinese miners went offline. They even pointed to Turkey, where there is an |
1:18.7 | upcoming ban on using cryptos as currencies, while trading, holding, and investing are still allowed. |
1:24.8 | My counterpoint on that Monday show was that really this crash had more to do |
1:29.2 | with market structure and specifically leverage than any of these highfalut and macro narratives. |
1:34.8 | Here's how Nidig put it in the analysis they put out about a day later. Quote, we believe the |
1:39.8 | root cause of the sell-off had to do with investor positioning rather than fundamental news. |
1:44.6 | Simply put, traders were over-leveraged and positioned long, resulting in forced liquidations. |
1:49.8 | Now, some like Alameda's Sam Trebucco, did point to Coinbase's IPO underperforming as a reason |
1:55.6 | that the market might have started to sell, but the violence of the move undoubtedly had to do |
2:00.4 | with leverage and liquidations. Fast forward to the violence of the move undoubtedly had to do with leverage and liquidations. |
2:02.5 | Fast forward to the end of the week Thursday night. The market starts selling off again in a |
2:07.1 | pretty vicious way, and again, we try to frame it in big macro narrative terms. This time, it was all |
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