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Odd Lots

Brad Setser on How World Trade Changed In the Last Three Years

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

News, Investing, Business, News Commentary, Business News

4.41.6K Ratings

🗓️ 9 June 2023

⏱️ 62 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

A lot has happened since we last spoke to Brad Setser in April 2020, towards the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. For a start, Setser was appointed to be a trade advisor in the Biden administration during a period of immense disruption. There was lots of talk about a potential reshuffling of the way the global economy works, and things like nearshoring and deglobalization. But some big predictions for the way world trade will function haven't come to fruition. For instance, the US is still running a current account deficit and China is still running a current account surplus. So in this episode, Setser returns to discuss what has and hasn't changed in global trade in the last three years. He's left the Biden administration and returned to the Council on Foreign Relations, where he's a senior fellow. He talks about everything from the US-China trade imbalance to the impact of sanctions on the world economy to China's electric vehicle and plane production, plus the future of the dollar.

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Transcript

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0:58.0

Hello and welcome to another episode of The Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Wyzendal.

1:16.3

Joe, can you remember the last time we had Brad Setzer on? It's been too long. I don't know the exact time.

1:22.7

I think we had it one once since the pandemic, but obviously he did his stint at the administration.

1:29.1

So it sort of like disappeared from public view for a while. And it's just like, it's been too long without a Brad Setzer episode.

1:35.0

Well, you are absolutely right that it has been too long. But the last time we had him on the show was it was actually April 2020.

1:41.6

So it's sort of firmly in the debt. Right. Yeah, right at the start of the pandemic economic experience.

1:50.2

It's over three years ago now. I know. And and a lot has happened since then.

1:54.3

As you mentioned, he did leave the Council on Foreign Relations CFR to join the Biden administration as a trade representative.

2:03.4

He since come back, which means we get to enjoy his blog posts again, his tweeting, but also setting aside Brad's personal experience over the past three years.

2:15.1

There's just a lot that's happened with global trade with the economy. And the weird thing is, a lot's happened, but a lot has kind of stayed the same as well.

2:25.6

Well, so that's really well put because I think that you know, one of the expectations during probably the last time we talked in April 2020 or middle of 2020,

2:36.0

just like everyone's like a nearshoring or you know, great separation or and I don't think that really is the story.

2:43.2

So on some level, I don't, you know, I do think maybe at the margins, like, we're still trading a lot with China, right?

2:49.2

For all of the talk, we're still trading a lot with China. But it does feel like on the other hand, big things are changing with the nature of Chinese exports to auto industry.

3:00.4

And then all of these things with like EVs and the inflation reduction act and the chips X. So big things are happening on the global trade level tensions between the US and the EU.

...

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