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American Prestige

Bonus - Prediction Markets and the Financialization of Death w/ Sam Biddle and Jay Caspian Kang (Preview)

American Prestige

Daniel Bessner & Derek Davison

History, News, Politics

4.81.2K Ratings

🗓️ 11 January 2026

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Subscribe now for the full episode and access to all of our bonus content. Danny and Derek are joined by Jay Caspian Kang of Time to Say Goodbye and Sam Biddle of The Intercept to discuss prediction markets, online gambling, and the effort to financialize politics, war, and social life. They talk about the history of prediction markets leading to their current role in betting on elections, coups, invasions, and humanitarian catastrophes; insider trading as a design feature rather than a bug; the erosion of legal and moral guardrails; the growing integration of gambling platforms into journalism and media ecosystems; prediction markets in the context of financialization and declining democratic legitimacy; and the normalization of openly ghoulish profit-seeking, with violence becoming a tradable asset. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

You're listening to American Prestige. To listen ad-free, you can subscribe at Americanprostagepod.com. Find the link in our show notes.

0:11.6

So just a question, when it was run through universities, were ordinary citizens allowed to basically make wagers on what would happen? Or was that not allowed?

0:20.8

No, they were, but it was quite cat, if that makes sense.

0:23.6

So the most you could bet, I think, was $400 bucks on any result.

0:28.0

And I remember this because, you know, I have a lot of friends who are gamblers,

0:32.3

and they had a very intense idea of who was going to win the Eric Adams mayoral election and like their main

0:40.3

they're we were all wrong by the way we all thought Catherine Garcia was going to go

0:44.3

I didn't do this I didn't bet on it because you know I'm a journalist or whatever but my friends

0:49.0

were trying to pile as much money on Garcia as possible and the problem was that like

0:53.7

there's only so many times you can bet

0:55.0

$400, right, through different accounts or whatever. And in that way, it was a little bit more,

1:02.1

it wasn't like what it is now where these markets have like hundreds of thousands,

1:06.7

sometimes millions of dollars in them to provide liquidity and to provide action.

1:13.7

Were there ever any guardrails, like there's a qualitative difference to me

1:17.5

between a bunch of people betting on the New York mayoral election and who's going to win,

1:22.7

and people putting bets on, is the United States going to invade Venezuela by the end of January

1:28.9

2026? And that's why we're talking about this because there were bets made on, I think

1:35.2

it was Polymarket maybe, but right before the Nicholas Maduro operation that suggests that

1:43.0

somebody was betting based on information that the,

1:47.3

the operation was about to take place.

1:50.3

That leaving aside the, you know, whatever that is,

1:54.7

I don't even know if you can call it insider trading,

...

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