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The Indicator from Planet Money

Bond market nightmares

The Indicator from Planet Money

NPR

Business

4.79.2K Ratings

🗓️ 15 May 2025

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In early April, the bond market gave people a scare. Investors began selling off their historically secure U.S. Treasuries in large quantities. It reportedly encouraged President Trump to pause his flurry of liberation day tariffs. These jitters offered a glimpse into what could go wrong for U.S. Treasuries if economic uncertainty gets worse. On today's show, we take a peek at some nightmare scenarios for the bond market.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

NPR.

0:11.7

This is the indicator for planet money.

0:13.5

I'm Adrienne Ma.

0:14.4

And I'm Whalen Wong.

0:15.7

The bond market recently gave us a good scare.

0:18.8

This is after President Trump's Liberation Day announcement last month.

0:24.0

You may remember that there was a sell-off in U.S. government bonds.

0:28.0

Yeah, that was alarming because U.S. treasuries are usually this safe haven in times of economic uncertainty.

0:35.4

These bond market jitters reportedly spooked Trump so much that he paused

0:39.6

some of his big tariff plans. And the scariness of what happened with Treasuries has actually

0:44.5

stayed with us, like the lingering dread you might feel after watching a horror movie.

0:51.1

I'm still sweating, Adrian. So today on the show, we confront our fears about the bond market.

0:57.0

We enter a twilight zone of nightmare scenarios for U.S. Treasuries.

1:02.3

Come with us, if you dare, after the break.

1:09.3

Woo-hoo-hoo-hoo. The U.S. Treasury market is massive. We're talking almost $30 trillion worth of outstanding bonds. That's money the U.S. government has borrowed from investors. And it uses that money, along with tax dollars, to fund everything the government does.

1:32.4

Now, most of these bondholders are in the U.S., but investors all around the world are usually clamoring to hold U.S. treasuries.

1:39.8

They know historically that the U.S. pays its debts on time.

1:43.2

And therefore, investors don't demand a high interest rate from the U.S. pays its debts on time. And therefore, investors don't

1:45.4

demand a high interest rate from the U.S. government. This is part of what's known as the U.S.'s

1:50.8

exorbitant privilege. Mark Williams is an economist at a firm called Capital Economics. It

1:55.7

advises central banks and corporations on investment decisions. And Mark says investors' healthy appetite for treasuries keeps prices for these bonds high

2:04.4

and interest rates for government debt low.

...

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