Bolivia: Can statistics help detect electoral fraud?

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.6 • 3.5K Ratings

🗓️ 15 November 2019

⏱️ 12 minutes

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Summary

Evo Morales, Bolivia’s longest-serving leader and first indigenous president, stepped down last week amid weeks of protests sparked by a dispute over a recent presidential election in the country. His opponents say the election was rigged but the embattled former president said it was a cunning coup. We take a closer look at the election results and ask if statistics can tell whether it was fair or fraudulent. Dr Calla Hummel of the University of Miami and Professor Romulo Chumacero of the University of Chile join Ruth Alexander to discuss.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hello and welcome to Morales on the BBC World Service.
0:05.4	I'm Ruth Alexander.
0:07.4	To the brothers and sisters of Bolivia, to the whole world.
0:17.3	This week we look at the disputed presidential election in Bolivia, held last month,
0:22.4	the incumbent president, Ava Morales won, but concerns were raised over the legitimacy
0:27.6	of the vote.
0:28.6	Weeks of protests followed and made claims of fraud.
0:32.6	Ava Morales said the situation was the most cunning coup in history.
0:37.4	He eventually agreed to new elections, but faced calls to resign.
0:41.6	Allies started to desert him and the military urged him to step down.
0:46.6	I have decided to resign from my position as president.
0:55.6	After his resignation, Ava Morales fled to Mexico.
1:00.1	Putting the political situation aside, we wondered if looking at the numbers can help identify
1:06.1	whether the election was a bit dodgy.
1:09.9	Can an examination of the statistics tell us whether the election was fair or fraudulent?
1:24.4	Now of course, I expect Morales loyal listeners are utter experts in the ins and outs of
1:29.4	Bolivian politics, but for anyone who might not have been paying attention, here's our
1:34.0	Morales South American correspondent, Jordan Dunbar.
1:37.4	Hola, Jordan.
1:38.4	Oi, come of I, Tudor Beng, okay, crack, Ruth?
1:42.2	Yeah, so Jordan, what's been going on?
1:44.9	Ava Morales was elected in 2006.
	...

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