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Top Traders Unplugged

BO79: When The Evidence Isn’t Enough

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 15 May 2020

⏱️ 4 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

CTAs have found (the hard way) that conveying the facts may not be as enticing as telling a good story.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Got a lot of likes. A week later, the same guy. Gun latch again.

0:08.7

People liked this. I believed everybody was intellectually objective and honest. I didn't

0:16.5

understand why I couldn't convince people of almost mathematically analytical arguments regarding

0:22.3

markets. After years, I realized people want to be told what to do, told what to think.

0:28.6

And it just made me think of CTAs, you know, we have these arguments, we have this math,

0:34.4

we have these performance and the track records records and no one wants to listen and believe

0:39.0

in what we do and it sounds frustrating. And then we're prone to say, well, we're not doing a good

0:45.7

job of making this argument. No, we're doing a fine job. It's just that people can only

0:51.8

handle what they can handle and believe what they can believe,

0:54.8

and they're going to be heavily influenced by recent performance.

0:59.4

And to that point, Jerry, you know what they say.

1:02.8

They say that a compelling offer is 10 times better than a convincing argument. And I think that's really what,

1:14.4

you know, our industry as a whole have been trying to do for many years. We're trying to convince

1:18.5

people that, you know, what we're doing is good for an overall portfolio. But I do think we need to

1:26.3

maybe change a little bit and start thinking in the

1:29.5

terms of how do we make the convincing, or the, sorry, the compelling offer instead. How do we

1:35.8

phrase that? How do we talk about it? Now, of course, I've heard you often say, well, you know,

1:41.0

what do you don't like the diversification? Don't you like the discipline, the risk management? I mean, of course, people

1:47.2

would say, yeah, I do like that. That does sound well. But it is, you're absolutely right. I mean,

1:52.5

trying to convince people of something that they maybe not really are ready to believe is,

1:58.0

you know, that's a hard thing to do. A follow-up to that was reminded me of some studies I've read that try to explain the performance

2:10.0

of trend following and why it works.

...

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