4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 13 May 2020
⏱️ 4 minutes
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Why CTA & S&P500 returns are often wrongly compared.
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0:00.0 | You brought up something earlier, Jerry, not in our conversation that we're having right now, |
0:07.0 | but something when we were just getting ready for this, that talked a little bit about, you know, |
0:13.0 | equity returns, equity drawdowns versus CTA returns, CTA drawdowns. |
0:18.0 | Why don't you talk a little bit about that? I thought that was pretty interesting. |
0:22.9 | Yeah, I think to some degree, not only does CTAs have to explain their performance as |
0:30.5 | it relates to the systems and the markets that they trade and the shorts that they trade, |
0:35.1 | they also have to choose a certain amount of leverage. and very few hedge funds or CTAs are targeting, you know, similar return drawdown that an S&P has historically had, 8% return and a 50 plus percent drawdown. |
0:49.8 | So I think this week, especially there's headlines that CTAs lost more money than the S&P, |
0:57.9 | and some of that is due to the leverage, and they're expected annual return, at least according to all of us, |
1:05.2 | when we do our research and back testing would be far greater than 8%. |
1:09.3 | Not an excuse, just kind of an explanation |
1:11.6 | of how the returns can not only not provide crisis alpha in a certain week, but actually be worse, |
1:22.6 | because our expectation of profit and drawdown is looked at over 20 or 30 years of analyzing |
1:31.5 | the markets. And we're coming up with methods and systems and ideas that are going to work |
1:39.5 | and have worked over a long period of time, but not that reliable on a weekly basis. |
1:46.6 | Yeah. No, I completely agree that definitely, you could say, many strategies are held up to a very |
1:54.3 | high standard when it comes to that in terms of expected returns, but also expecting to have |
2:00.4 | relatively shallow drawdowns, which is difficult |
2:05.9 | to deliver in the long run. |
2:07.4 | And maybe this is part of the problem, at least this is sort of one of the things that I've |
2:13.0 | been pondering. |
2:14.3 | And that is a lot of these strategies that we know of today take risk parity and |
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