4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 17 April 2020
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Howard Mark’s recent thoughts on the importance of ‘buying low’, and what really constitutes ‘buying low’.
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0:00.0 | Yes, once again, Howard Marks, not a trend follower. I don't think he likes looking at prices only and following trends, but a lot of, he had an interview this week, and it's a lot of deep good wisdom. |
0:19.0 | And on a philosophical level, somehow, the fill a kindred spirit to some of the |
0:25.2 | things he says and you know one of my goals is to listen to traditional non-trend following people and |
0:34.6 | interpret it in my own way as it relates and see it through the lens of trend following. |
0:41.3 | So his tweet was, or his quote was, in order to get an above average return in the long run, |
0:48.3 | you have to buy things for less than their worth, which is to say that other people out there have to be willing, have to be selling |
0:55.7 | that thing for less than its worth. |
0:58.6 | And so this is not an original thought of mine. |
1:01.0 | I have other smart friends who mentioned this to me years ago, something along the lines |
1:06.9 | of, given that trend following has been profitable, you know, it has a positive expectation. |
1:14.6 | Buying the upside breakout must be buying things for less than their worth. For 35 years, |
1:20.4 | I've been taking advantage of that mistake. Hashtag anchoring. So I think buying the highs, whatever that means, the 50-day high, the 100-day |
1:31.0 | high, getting long at a breakout level or a moving average crossover, you know, by definition, |
1:37.9 | it's not the lowest price you've seen recently. And it doesn't sound very like a bargain. |
1:46.1 | Maybe I need a system that could have fought way, way before that. |
1:51.1 | And although I just, I think what I'm trying to say is your brain is anchoring that to that low of the chart or the recent lows. |
1:59.8 | And how much fun it would have been to get long there |
2:02.6 | but that doesn't mean that the upside breakout isn't still buying something for less than it's worth |
2:10.4 | I think by definition it is so don't feel bad about that just remind ourselves that we are buying bargains. |
2:20.8 | In hindsight, when we have a good trend, where we got in was a really, really fun place to get in, really perfect place to get in. |
2:29.6 | And the embedded risk control of waiting for a high versus trying to buy the low, you know, |
2:37.3 | all sorts of advantages in that too. Yeah. I mean, I know we were talking about something before we |
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