4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 19 March 2020
⏱️ 6 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Discussion a recent Barron’s article which says that the 200-Day Moving Average no longer works – perhaps Barron’s have changed their mind after March 2020?
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0:00.0 | So interesting. Now, it wasn't always, it wasn't all good, I think, in the press this week. |
0:08.3 | I think there was another article you tweeted about, which I didn't read either, |
0:12.8 | with something to do with a 200-day moving average. Can you pick that up, Jerry, and what was that all about? |
0:21.0 | It was an article in the Min Barrens, and the title of the article was the 200-day |
0:28.6 | moving average doesn't, no longer works, a market timing tool that no longer works. |
0:34.6 | I've often wondered, I've been a little unsure what is market timing. And then because |
0:41.0 | one guy will write an article on Monday that market timing doesn't work. And then on Friday, |
0:46.3 | he's extolling the virtues of trend following. So, okay, so it's not the same thing. So I think |
0:50.8 | this article really helped me focus on what do these people mean by market |
0:55.9 | timing. And I think what they mean is an indicator that tells you now is the time to get out. It's |
1:03.0 | not a system. A system has an entry, a system has an exit. One of the complaints about this |
1:09.6 | 200-day moving average, you know, is 200 days, is that long-term |
1:13.9 | enough? Is it should it be 300? Should it be 100? That wasn't really delved into. It didn't |
1:19.5 | seem to be a lot of interest on getting to the bottom of anything except to say this sort of |
1:24.9 | indicator of business doesn't look like it's worth anything. And he pointed out |
1:30.2 | the four or five times, the last four or five times there, that was really the bottom of the |
1:35.7 | market of the S&P. And the S&P rallied off of that. So, and I guess implicit in that is that |
1:43.6 | an indicator would have to have a 50% or 70 or 80% or 90% success rate. |
1:50.5 | So anything less than. |
1:52.1 | And of course, we know as trend followers, that we're perfectly fine with a 40% success rate. |
1:59.8 | And so the whole systematic approach with an entry and exit, a stop loss is much different |
2:05.4 | from an indicator approach, which I think is somewhat worthless. |
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