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Top Traders Unplugged

BO17: Track records vs Simulations... what’s Best?

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 15 April 2019

⏱️ 22 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

For those of us who have been on the manager side for a while, you’ll know that investors love to analyse decades of performance data before deciding which manager they are going to invest with, and that makes a lot of sense.  But we also come across investors who subsequently redeem based on just a year or two after they invested, which is usually just down to bad luck and unfortunate timing.  This does not seem logical, but it does relate to the short conversation I want to share with you today, where I discuss the role and importance of track-records & back-tests with Scot Billington.  We also ended up discussing an interesting twist to their research, which led them to abandon taking any Short Trades in their model.  So enjoy these unique insights from Scot.

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

For those of us who have been on the manager side for a while, we know that investors love

0:06.2

to analyze decades of performance data before deciding which manager they're going to invest

0:12.8

with. And that makes a lot of sense. But we also come across investors who subsequently

0:18.1

redeem based on just a year or two's worth of data after they invested,

0:23.7

which is usually just down to bad luck or unfortunate timing.

0:28.6

Of course, this mismatch in the length of data it takes to get in, as opposed to get out of their

0:35.2

investment, does not seem logical.

0:37.9

But it kind of ties into the short conversation I want to share with you today where I

0:43.0

discussed the role and the importance of track records and back tests with Scott Billington.

0:49.9

We also ended up discussing a very interesting twist to their research, which led them to abandon

0:55.4

taking any short trades in their model. So sit back and relax and enjoy this unique short

1:01.6

clip from a past episode with Scott. And if you would like to listen to the full conversation,

1:07.7

just go to TopTraders on Plug forward slash 25 and also forward slash 26.

1:19.6

Now, track record, we've touched a little bit upon the track record, but what I'd love to do

1:26.7

is to ask you how one should read your track record

1:31.4

because we all know that strategies evolve over time and therefore in a sense one could say

1:40.5

that actually a track record, sure, it shows that you've survived, it shows that you

1:45.2

have had some innovation, but I think sometimes people get maybe a little bit fooled to believe

1:53.5

that a track record is a great indication of what the future is going to look like because they

1:58.4

don't really know what changes have happened along the way

2:01.5

in the model. So in some ways one could say that maybe it's better to look at a back test of the

2:06.8

current model when you look at a manager. Maybe that would say more about, you know, the future. I don't

...

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