Bits + Bips: Why Rate Cuts Are Less Likely This Year, but Crypto's Outlook Is Positive - Ep. 839

Unchained

Laura Shin

News, Tech News, Business News

4.5 • 1.3K Ratings

🗓️ 21 May 2025

⏱️ 82 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

U.S. credit got downgraded. Fed policy expectations are flipping. And Coinbase hit the S&P 500 (while also being extorted). But what does all of this mean for crypto? On this week’s Bits + Bips, James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, Ram Ahluwalia, and Noelle Acheson break down: Why the Moody’s downgrade doesn’t mean much for markets Whether Fed rate cuts are now further off than expected Why Alex says Coinbase is a “horrible product” despite S&P inclusion How stablecoins tie into U.S. geopolitical strategy Whether Circle should sell to Coinbase And what the altcoin ETF delay really tells us Plus: unemployment, yield curve control, the “Consensus vibes,” and Ram’s wild anecdote about workers gaming unemployment benefits. Bitwise James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter Macro Reuters: Moody's downgrade intensifies investor worry about US fiscal path USNews: Trump Tells Walmart to 'Eat the Tariffs' Instead of Raising Prices Coinbase Unchained: How the Attack on Coinbase Shows the Dangers of Centralized Exchanges Fortune: Circle pursues IPO—but talks with Coinbase and Ripple could mean a sale, sources say CNBC: Coinbase joining S&P 500, replacing Discover Financial Stablecoin bill Unchained: Stablecoin Bill Passes Key Hurdle: Dems Join GOP to Deliver a Crypto Win Timestamps: 👋 0:00 Intro 💳 2:18 A big reason why the U.S. credit downgrade matters for investors 📉 7:49 Contrarian take: why souring U.S. debt could also hurt crypto 🛡️ 15:30 Do tariffs work against the U.S. military and national security? 🔁 20:14 Why the crew flipped on Fed rate cut expectations 📊 28:35 Is the U.S. about to introduce yield curve control? 🧾 35:04 Are the Mag7 stocks the new safe havens in a recession? 📈 38:54 What if the “Goldilocks” scenario is priced in, and it's wrong? 💼 44:26 Why hedge funds are secretly in a vulnerable position 🫱 49:15 What the “vibes” at Consensus 2025 revealed 💵🇨🇳 50:44 A secret threat that the stablecoin bill poses to China? 📈 57:43 What Coinbase’s S&P 500 inclusion means and why Robinhood is its biggest threat 🌀 1:07:17 Should Coinbase acquire Circle? Here’s what the panel thinks ⏳ 1:13:38 Why altcoin ETF approvals are delayed and wen staking in ETFs? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Has anything changed in your reviews over the last few weeks on inflation where rates are going or any of that?
0:05.5	Everything's changed.
0:07.0	I'm becoming more convinced we're not going to see rate cuts this year.
0:10.7	I agree with that. Maybe the last quarter, but certainly nothing imminent.
0:15.0	Hi everyone, welcome to Bits and Bips, exploring how crypto and macro collide one basis point at a time.
0:22.5	Today we'll talk about Consensus 2025, Trump, as usual, some news around Coinbase, some news around Circle,
0:31.2	the stable coin bill, which is the biggest news of the day today, and then also we obviously have to get into the U.S. credit downgrade by
0:37.7	Moody.
0:38.7	But first, some quick intros.
0:40.4	I'm your host, James Defer, Tradfoy Archmister, Lord of Bloomberg's End.
0:43.9	I'm here with Alex Kruger, Kruger, Kruger, Macro, of Asgard, Protector of the Realm.
0:48.4	Hi, everyone. Noel Alachison, hi, Seer, and Keeper of the Crypto is Macro Now Newsletter.
0:59.5	Finally, last but not least, Ram Al-Aliam, Macea of Wealth, leader of Lumida.
1:00.1	Good afternoon.
1:03.6	And a last second, happy related birthday to Rom, actually.
1:07.3	Oh, thanks. Thanks. I appreciate it. I stopped counting the years five years ago, but Brian Johnson. I'm going to do reverse aging, hopefully here on out.
1:13.8	We're here to discuss the latest stories in the world of crypto and macro. Just remember that
1:18.1	nothing we say here is investment advice. Please check unjanktro.com slash bips and bips for more
1:22.8	exposures. Before we begin, we're just going to take a minute to hear from the sponsors who make
1:26.8	this show possible.
1:28.1	Crypto moves fast. It's why Bitwise launched the weekly CIO memo, a jargon-free summary of what's moving crypto markets, written by one of the best in the business, CIO Matt Hogan. Get up to speed in five minutes or less. Check it out at bitwiseinvestments.com slash CIO memo.
1:46.5	Carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto before investing.
	...

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