BITCOIN SEASON 2: We're in a Recession on TikTok, But Not in the Market
CoinDesk Podcast Network
CoinDesk
4.8 • 689 Ratings
🗓️ 16 August 2025
⏱️ 41 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Stocks are soaring but TikTok is calling recession. The hosts examine viral recession indicators vs hard economic data to see if we're heading for downturn or if it's just vibes-based panic in 2025.
We’re diving deep into the disconnect between market performance and recession fears. They explore viral TikTok recession indicators, analyze Q2 earnings data, examine job market softening, and discuss whether we're actually heading into recession territory or if it's all just economic anxiety amplified by social media vibes.
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## Notes:
- 33% recession probability down from 45% in April
- S&P 500 earnings grew 11.8% year over year in Q2
- Only 73,000 jobs added in July vs expectations
- May/June job numbers revised down by 258,000
- Energy sector earnings dropped 18-19% in Q2
- 92% probability of September Fed rate cut
Timestamps:
00:00 Start
00:32 Wen resesh bruv?
03:54 Recession Pop Music
10:48 White Lady Dasher
12:49 Data nerd time
24:56 Mag 7 earnings
26:49 Unemployment
31:34 Consumer credit
33:44 What's a humble central bank to do?
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Stocks are ripping and sentiment is dipping. Are we in a recession or about to be? There are |
| 0:06.4 | multiple recession indicators, or at least you would think there are if you hang out on TikTok. |
| 0:12.4 | Yes, the zoomers are talking about undeniable recession indicators. We get into that and then |
| 0:18.9 | back it up with some hard data, or rather don't back up with some data here on Bitcoin season two. |
| 0:24.6 | Let's take it off. |
| 0:31.8 | My boy hitting dingers. |
| 0:33.7 | Stocks ripping, cinnamon dipping. |
| 0:36.0 | All my homies are tripping. |
| 0:37.3 | Can't buy a house. Can't afford a baby. We're going to get a recession. I don't know, dog, maybe. It is real recession hours on the socials for the most Americans. But the market is telling a completely different story, Charlie. It's like the tale of two markets right now. Yeah. And this has been top of everyone's mind, especially after April when Trump announced |
| 1:00.1 | Liberation Day with his reciprocal tariffs. And this has kind of been the perpetual story and |
| 1:06.1 | kind of like a bait and switch thing in the market and within, you know, people's news digest, right? Because |
| 1:14.9 | like everyone thinks it's going to happen. They think it's just around the corner. People think |
| 1:18.8 | things can't go any higher. Everything's super expensive. But so far, we have avoided the worst. |
| 1:25.5 | Some are calling for a soft landing. Others are saying it's too early to tell. Who do you know to trust? You can't really trust anyone because ultimately no one knows. Recessions are always like backward looking, you know. You don't really know you're in one until you're in one. It's like the good old days, but the bad old days. And you didn't know you're in recession. We're structuring this episode as first we're going to show you what the internet |
| 1:51.7 | is saying about the recession, and it's more vibes-based evaluation of recession. And then we can |
| 1:57.8 | go to the data, which again, I guess is data. At the end of the day, |
| 2:03.2 | everything's kind of vibes based. But it really does like further showcase the just the |
| 2:12.8 | segra, the siloing of different worlds and the different experiences of people, |
| 2:19.8 | whether you're a young person, a Zoomer, |
| 2:21.7 | wanting to get on with your adult life, |
| 2:24.5 | or whether you are some D-Gen trader who is absolutely killing it on Robin Hood. |
| 2:29.1 | Now you can totally exist in one world and never cross over with the other. |
... |
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