BITCOIN SEASON 2: All Your Bitcoin Models Are Broken (But Really)

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CoinDesk

Business News, Daily News, News, Tech News

4.7 • 698 Ratings

🗓️ 14 June 2025

⏱️ 38 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Charlie and Colin demolish every popular Bitcoin price model - stock-to-flow, rainbow charts, power law, and Metcalfe's law. Why they're all wrong and what might actually work this cycle. You're listening to Bitcoin Season 2. Subscribe to the newsletter, trusted by over 12,000 Bitcoiners: https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com Charlie and Colin break down every major Bitcoin price prediction model and explain why they're all fundamentally flawed. From Plan B's broken stock-to-flow to Giovanni's power law obsession, rainbow charts, and Metcalfe's law - we expose the problems with each approach and introduce Charlie's new "institutional structured bid corridor" theory for this cycle. Subscribe to the newsletter! https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com NOTES: • Stock-to-flow predicted $1M by 2025 - failed • Rainbow chart undefeated since 2013 • Power law predicts $100K by 2028 latest • Metcalfe's law broken by ETF adoption • Hyper-bitcoinization chart shows $100B BTC • Institutional money creating price channels Timestamps: 00:00 Start 00:34 Price Models 02:09 Stock to Flow 10:48 Rainbow Chart 14:59 Arch Network 15:31 Power Law 21:40 Metcalfe's Law 28:03 Hyperbitcoinization Model 30:47 Institutional Structure Bid Corridor Model - 👉 Brought to you by Arch Network! Arch brings the speed of Solana & the best of crypto UX to Bitcoin. Tap into the rich app ecosystem on Arch & try out the testnet while you’re still early! Visit arch.network to learn more. - 👋Bitcoin Season 2 is produced Blockspace Media, Bitcoin’s first B2B publication in Bitcoin. Follow us on Twitter and check out our newsletter for the best information in Bitcoin mining, Ordinals and tech! Enjoy the show? Check out our website and newsletter by clicking here. Questions or want to sponsor? hello@blockspace.media See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Transcript

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0:40.8	Start your free 30-day trial at audible.com slash Wondery UK.
0:45.6	That's audible.com slash Wondery UK.
0:49.4	We're talking Bitcoin price today on Bitcoin Season 2.
0:53.2	Yes, there's a bunch of price models out there.
0:55.3	Power law, Stock to Flow, Metcalf's Law, Colin and I are going to break all of them down
1:00.1	because guess what?
1:01.3	All of your models are wrong.
1:03.1	Every single one of these is going to break someday, and we're going to tell you why.
1:07.1	That's your teaser.
1:08.0	Welcome to Bitcoin Season 2.
1:09.7	Bitcoin Season 2 is sponsored by Arch Network, the platform building Ridgeless apps on Bitcoin.
1:15.0	More on Arch later on the show. Let's kick it off.
1:24.1	All right, Colin, $110,000 Bitcoin today.
	...

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