Birthrates Are Plummeting Worldwide. Why?

The Ezra Klein Show

New York Times Opinion

Society & Culture, Government, News

4.6 • 11K Ratings

🗓️ 19 March 2024

⏱️ 61 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

For a long time, the story about the world’s population was that it was growing too quickly. There were going to be too many humans, not enough resources, and that spelled disaster. But now the script has flipped. Fertility rates have declined dramatically, from about five children per woman 60 years ago to just over two today. About two-thirds of us now live in a country or area where fertility rates are below replacement level. And that has set off a new round of alarm, especially in certain quarters on the right and in Silicon Valley, that we’re headed toward demographic catastrophe. But when I look at these numbers, I just find it strange. Why, as societies get richer, do their fertility rates plummet? Money makes life easier. We can give our kids better lives than our ancestors could have imagined. We don’t expect to bear the grief of burying a child. For a long time, a big, boisterous family has been associated with a joyful, fulfilled life. So why are most of us now choosing to have small ones? I invited Jennifer D. Sciubba on the show to help me puzzle this out. She’s a demographer, a political scientist and the author of “8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death and Migration Shape Our World.” She walks me through the population trends we’re seeing around the world, the different forces that seem to be driving them and why government policy, despite all kinds of efforts, seems incapable of getting people to have more kids. Book Recommendations: Extra Life by Steven Johnson The Bet by Paul Sabin Reproductive States edited by Rickie Solinger and Mie Nakachi Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [email protected]. You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs. This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact checking by Michelle Harris, with Kate Sinclair and Mary Marge Locker. Mixing by Isaac Jones. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Sonia Herrero.

Transcript

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0:00.0	From New York Times opinion, this is the Ezra Klein Show. So for a long time the population concern we've been used to hearing is that we are
0:26.4	racing towards too many people too quickly. This was a Malthusian fear in
0:31.0	the 18th century that more people would need more starvation.
0:34.8	This was and is the fear of many environmentalists today that more people means more weight on
0:39.6	the planet's resources, more environmental damage, but now there's this other concern that has come to join it,
0:45.2	that we are racing towards a depopulation, too few people, too quickly.
0:49.9	As countries get richer the world over, fertility rates plummet quickly.
0:55.3	In countries like America, we're now below replacement rate, the rate of which a population
0:58.7	holds steady.
0:59.7	You see that in China.
1:01.1	You see that in India. In some countries like Japan and South Korea,
1:04.4	they're so far bluer placement rate that their population is going to
1:07.6	rapidly shrink generation by generation. If you spend much time on today's
1:11.9	right or among the Silicon Valley VC class, you find
1:14.8	the set of fears has become for them almost what the climate crisis is for the left.
1:19.8	You hear about it constantly.
1:21.6	For many it feels apocalyptic, it is the overarching context in which
1:25.7	everything else is playing out. But even if you don't quite know how to feel about it, and
1:30.6	I don't always know how to feel about it, it's also just kind of strange. You wouldn't necessarily think that
1:36.1	societies would have so many fewer children as they become richer. Money makes life
1:40.4	easier. Lower child mortality makes the heart-rending grief of losing a
1:44.3	child less likely. Being better able to provide for your children would maybe make it
	...

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