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Hi, and welcome to the Longview. I'm Jeff Patak chief ratings officer for Morningstar Research Services.

And I'm Christine Ben's director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar.

Our guest this week is Bill Nygren. Bill was one of our earliest guests in the Longview,

appearing for the first time back in August 2019. Bill's a partnered Harris Associates, which he joined in 1983. There he serves as the

firm's chief investment officer for U.S. equities and is also the longtime manager of several

Oakmark funds, including the Oakmark Fund, the Oak Mark Select Fund, as well as the Oakmark Global

Select Fund. Bill received his bachelor's in accounting from the

University of Minnesota and his master's in finance from the University of Wisconsin's

Applied Security Analysis Program. He's also a CFA charter holder. Bill, welcome back to the Longview.

Thank you. It's great to be here. So you were interviewed about a year ago and the conversation

turned to the economy and you said to paraphrase that by the time you draw a conclusion about

whether we're in recession or seeing a spike in inflation, it's too late. Can you explain why that is?

Well, there are a couple reasons. One, the market always anticipates. And I think

as a rule of thumb, you think of the market looking at least six months ahead. So just on that

basis, you would expect that by the time you're hearing on the news or reading in the paper that we're in a recession,

we're in a bare market, inflation has gone crazy.

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