Big Tech Tumbles & Crypto Dips: How Low Can Prices Go?

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 11 January 2022

⏱️ 37 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

DB-Jan 10,2022: Goldman Sachs expects a more aggressive Fed this year with four interest rate hikes on the horizon in an effort to to tame inflation. The prediction comes as U.S. stocks extend a volatile start to the year and Bitcoin dips below $40,000 for the first time since September. People who invested in BTC in the run up to the launch of the Bitcoin ETF are about to break even. Will the Fed need to rethink its strategy? Meanwhile, Omicron continues to rampage through the world, and one city in China is taking an aggressive approach: Tianjin, near Beijing, is testing all 14 million of its residents after 20 people tested positive for the coronavirus, two of whom had the omicron variant. Alfonso Peccatiello and Weston Nakamura join from the Netherlands and Japan respectively to answer the timely question: How do you navigate this environment with rising interest rates? Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3K9da9p Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hello, welcome to the Real Vision Daily Briefing. It's Monday, January 10th, 2022. I'm Maggie Lake,
0:11.4	here today with Alfonso Pacquatielo, the author of The Macro Compass and Real Vision's Weston
0:17.8	Nakamura. This is shaping up to be a volatile week, so we decided to pull in not one,
0:22.4	but two of our best thinkers to help us all make sense of what is going on. Hello, gentlemen.
0:28.4	Hey, Maggie. I'm so happy you're here today because it was a rough Monday, especially if you
0:34.4	were long risk assets, tech stocks, continued their March lower, the yield on the 10 year,
0:39.2	got as high as 1.8%, and Bitcoin briefly dipped below 40,000. Before we jump in, a short time
0:47.1	to go, Real Vision founder, Ralph Powell shared his thoughts on some of the technicals that he thinks
0:52.2	are contributing to the move in crypto. Let's have a listen. Well, interestingly, as you know,
0:58.6	I thought that we were going to see a large rally in crypto in the back end of the year. That would
1:03.7	have been playing out the historical patents from 2013 or 2017, but it didn't happen. That's
1:09.8	what you mean by surprise. And that made me sit down and look at the market and figure out,
1:16.0	okay, what the hell is going on here? Why didn't it do it? Is this good news or bad news or
1:20.4	indifferent? What is it? So I broke apart the market and I'm going to go through some of the charts
1:25.1	in a minute. And I realized that the network growth had slowed down significantly. You see,
1:29.4	what had happened is a huge amount of retail had come in last year, sorry, in 2020, that in 2021,
1:36.0	we start off the year with a lot of institutions coming in allocating capital. And then what happened
1:41.1	was we started to see the rise of inflation. As inflation picked up, wages didn't pick up as fast.
1:47.5	And the marginal bar of crypto, the marginal investor, the retail investor was kind of sidelined.
1:53.0	And so that kept the network growth slower. Then we saw China and the Chinese were essentially
1:59.2	banning crypto and a number of active wallet addresses collapsed. So what you've taken is an all-time
2:05.9	high wallet addresses had suddenly fallen by that third as these Chinese participants had left
	...

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