Between "Inflation and Deflation" Lies More Volatility

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 10 February 2022

⏱️ 34 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Japan Machine Tool Orders, the best leading indicator of the global industrial cycle, accelerated in January. And recent data suggest the backlog at Los Angeles Port may begin to ease by summer. At the same time, the coming Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle is a major wild card for investors. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about why, according to his analysis, “deflation” is now equal to “inflation” as the dominant short-term market regime. Was the January sell-off merely a precursor to a larger correction? However the case turns, Fed Chair Jay Powell’s “right-tail hawkishness” means more volatility. Darius shares his thoughts on a murky macro picture and how specific assets are likely to perform under various scenarios. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HESUe5 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:35.4	Hello and welcome to the Real Vision Daily briefing. It's Wednesday, February 9th, 2022,
0:40.7	a Maggie Lake. Here with Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 macro. Hi, Darius.
0:46.8	What to do Maggie, how you doing? Yeah, I'm doing okay. I'm doing okay.
0:50.8	So is the market today, US equity is in the green across the board.
0:56.2	The NASDAQ extending that rebound for another day.
0:59.3	And closing looks like we're closing with buying right into the close.
1:03.2	Maybe at the highs of the day, the NASDAQ up 2%, and we see that 10-year treasury
1:07.7	continue to edge back, hovering around 1.93%, or edging back from that 2% level.
1:14.1	There's so much going on underneath those headlines.
1:17.3	So what's jumping out from your dashboard?
1:19.6	Yeah, I mean, what's jumping out from our dashboard is that the market is very clearly
1:23.2	starting to shift towards pat pricey in this sort of post-omacron bounce dynamic we've been
1:28.9	talking about in our research. Very similar to the post-delta bounce in economic activity,
1:34.3	both in terms of duration and magnitude. We're not going to get the same positivity we got
1:41.0	out of the stock market and risk assets in the month of October, but certainly we're well on our
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