Beth Kindig on AI, Semiconductors, and Tech Cycles

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The Motley Fool

Business, Investing

4.4 • 3K Ratings

🗓️ 12 February 2023

⏱️ 21 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

ChatGPT is getting plenty of attention, but there are other uses for artificial intelligence that investors should watch. Beth Kindig is the lead technology analyst for the I/O fund. Deidre Woollard caught up with Kindig to discuss:

- Where we are in the cloud adoption cycle
- A key narrative playing out in semiconductor earnings
- What to learn from companies that went public too quickly

Companies discussed: MSFT, NVDA, TSM, META, AMD

Host: Deidre Woollard
Guest: Beth Kindig
Producer: Ricky Mulvey
Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Heather Horton

Transcript

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0:00.0	Money can potentially dry up. I am very firm on the fact that the dot-com bust is not what we're looking at because technology today plays a much greater role in a very, very important role.
0:15.0	But I will say that some of the parallels around the private markets are there.
0:21.0	I'm Chris Hill and that's Beth Kinnick, the lead technology analyst at the I.O. Fund.
0:30.0	Deidre Wallard caught up with her to talk about how the big macro has changed everything about tech investing,
0:36.0	what to watch as semi-conductor companies report earnings,
0:40.0	and the uses for artificial intelligence that don't get as much attention as they probably should.
0:47.0	You're focused mostly on individual companies, but we got to talk a little big macro here.
0:54.0	How has the macro environment changed or has it changed any of the ways that you're thinking about investing right now?
1:00.0	It has changed everything entirely, I would say.
1:05.0	Interesting. Yeah, 180 degree pivot toward how important macro, how important the S&P 500 is even for tech investors because the S&P 500 is
1:16.0	the culmination of many macro factors represented in one price movement basically.
1:23.0	So we actually, I would say the best analogy is that macro is in the driver's seat and we like to track the S&P 500 for that in terms of price movements.
1:36.0	Bottom line is in the passenger seat and I would say growth is in the trunk of a car.
1:42.0	That's how much growth has moved down in terms of importance.
1:49.0	At the IO fund, everything we do is actually macro informed and we made that hard pivot back in April and May.
1:57.0	So if macro and S&P 500 is not participating, for example, we would not enter a stock.
2:02.0	If S&P 500 stops participating, we would trim stocks.
2:08.0	And that's because macro is, like I said, truly in the driver's seat.
2:13.0	We see that obviously when the Fed comes out and speaks, but at the same time, there's so much more underlying levels of uncertainty that need to be monitored.
2:24.0	I would say the number one would be the consumer actually.
2:28.0	We think is weaker than the market today is taking into account.
2:33.0	Fascinating. OK, so growth is in the trunk of the car. That is a tectonic shift.
	...

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