Bet The Algo: Week 5 Free 3

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MWBK Creative

Sports

4.8 • 880 Ratings

🗓️ 5 October 2023

⏱️ 29 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The Bet The Algo boys are back with your NFL Week 5 Free 3 picks. Baltimore Ravens (BAL) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT) Predicted Score: BAL 22.55 - PIT 18.24 Spread: 4.00 (H) Value Index: 0.31 Scoring Prowess: Baltimore averages 24.8 points/game, placing them 12th in the league. Pittsburgh's defense, allowing 25.0 points/game, might have a tough day against this offense. Defensive Superiority: Ravens are a fortress, allowing just 14.5 points/game and 260.8 yards/game. Steelers' offense, lagging at 25th in points and 29th in yards, faces a daunting challenge. Red Zone Efficiency: Ravens lead the league in Red Zone Scoring % (TD) at 80.00%. Steelers' 22nd rank in defensive red zone metrics hints at a potential exploitation. Passing Advantage: Ravens have a potent air attack with 7.0 yards/pass and a 74.29% completion rate. Steelers' defense, giving up 7.1 yards/pass, might be on the back foot. Rushing Consistency: Ravens dominate on the ground, leading in rush play percentage (54.51%) and averaging 151.3 rush yards/game. Steelers' 29th rank in rush defense spells potential trouble. PICK: Baltimore New Orleans Saints (NO) vs. New England Patriots (NE) Predicted Score: NO 19.50 - NE 18.99 Spread: -1.00 (H) Value Index: 1.52 Points Allowed: NO is a fortress, allowing only 19.0 points/game, making them a tough nut for any offense to crack. Defensive Turnovers: NO excels in forcing turnovers, ranking 8th in the league. This ability could be pivotal against NE. Passing Defense: NO's secondary is formidable, limiting opponents to a 59.03% completion rate, a potential hurdle for the NE passing attack. Red Zone Defense: NO stands strong in the red zone, allowing touchdowns only 46.15% of the time. NE might find it challenging to convert their red zone visits. Third Down Stops: NO's defense shines on 3rd downs, ranking 13th with a 37.29% conversion allowance. NE, close behind, could still find it challenging on these crucial downs. PICK: New Orleans Carolina Panthers (CAR) vs. Detroit Lions (DET) Predicted Score: CAR 18.90 - DET 25.49 Spread: -9.50 (H) Value Index: 2.90 Third Down Defense Efficiency: Panthers are a wall on 3rd downs, ranking 3rd in defensive conversion allowance. Lions, ranked 17th offensively, might find it hard to maintain drives. Pass Defense vs. Pass Offense: CAR restricts opponents to just 176.8 passing yards/game. They're all set to challenge DET's 8th ranked pass offense. Sacking the QB: Panthers' defense, ranking 4th in sack percentage, will be a menace for the Lions' offensive line. Turnover Game: Panthers excel in picking off passes with a 3.64% interception rate. The Lions might want to be careful with their aerial plays. Rush Defense: Lions love to rush, but Panthers might be prepared. While they allow significant rush yards, their knowledge of Lions' run-heavy game might lead to strategic defensive plays to disrupt the Lions' primary mode of attack. PICK: Carolina

Transcript

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0:00.0	All right, week five is finally here.
0:09.0	We have a full month of data for the algorithm to work with.
0:16.9	I have can't miss Mitch. Joined as always my co-host better sounding, although I'm better looking by a mile Peter the
0:26.1	Irish guy we may need a poll on that on Patreon the first ever Patreon poll better
0:32.1	looking yeah has things first ever Patreon Patreon pole better looking.
0:32.8	Yeah, how's things?
0:35.0	Dude, listen, another great week,
0:37.6	another winning week.
0:39.6	I'm still fading myself and continuing to win. More importantly the algo is just it's
0:46.7	finding its stride with the data now. Do you want me good to go through a recap?
0:51.6	First off before you get in there,
0:53.7	just take note.
0:56.7	I have not had a losing week in four weeks.
1:01.0	I'm 56%.
1:02.3	I went 10, 5, and one last week. And I think I'm the prime example of what it takes
1:08.8	when you're actually handicapping games. Because I see, unlike you you when we do these picks I look at the data
1:17.9	I built the model and so I kind of know when it's kind of being a piece of garbage.
1:24.5	You see the output and you, the way you talk about it,
1:29.1	you make your little adjustments against the algo
1:32.2	and kind of feel like you know what you're doing.
1:33.7	Right. So maybe you have a leg up but still 10, 5,000, very, very impressive.
1:39.7	I couldn't have done it without the algo is my point right exactly well let's
	...

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