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The John Batchelor Show

BESTOF2022: 2/2: #PRC: #Russia: #US: "Three body problem of Newtonian Physics:" Arms control between three peer nuclear weapon military powers." Anton La Guardia, Economis (Originally posted December 2, 2022)

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John Batchelor

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🗓️ 27 July 2023

⏱️ 10 minutes

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Photo: 1921 Bolsheviks No known restrictions on publication.
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BESTOF2022: 2/2: #PRC: #Russia: #US: "Three body problem of Newtonian Physics:" Arms control between three peer nuclear weapon military powers." Anton La Guardia, Economis (Originally posted December 2, 2022)
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/11/29/how-will-america-deal-with-three-way-nuclear-deterrence

Transcript

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0:00.0

At TFL, we're making journeys safer for everyone.

0:03.9

And that includes improving safety on London's roads.

0:07.4

That's why we and London boroughs are lowering more speed limits to 20 miles per hour.

0:12.3

Because 20 miles per hour roads have already reduced collisions resulting in deaths

0:16.6

or serious injuries by 24%.

0:19.6

That is how we're making journeys in London safer and brighter for everyone.

0:24.8

Such TFL improvement plan to the Mayor of London and TFL every journey matters.

0:34.5

This is CBSI in the world. I'm John Maxor with Anton La Guardia, the diplomat

0:38.4

editor of the Economist magazine. And we're faced with what in Newtonian physics is known as

0:44.2

the three body problem. I follow Anton's reporting here. The two planets you can predict their orbits

0:50.8

around each other. But three planets, no, you can't predict it. And three planets are now

0:55.6

Moscow Beijing and Washington. And with nuclear weapons in the arsenal of the US and Russia,

1:04.8

the news is that China is adding quickly to its nuclear arsenal so that it looks to have,

1:10.7

according to the recent news, Reuters telling us it looks to have 1500 nuclear warheads by 2035.

1:18.2

Let us try the Cold War doctrines and do they apply? Anton, as I understand it, nuclear weapons

1:26.0

then and now with the Biden administration are seen as a counter to other nuclear weapons. In

1:31.2

other words, they're understood as counter force. Does that work with three nuclear powers?

1:38.7

There's a whole host of doctrines to do with nuclear weapons and nuclear warfare. So just to

1:45.8

take one step back if I may, at one end you have minimum of terrorists, which says what I need is

1:53.2

to have a sufficiently large arsenal that if you attack me first, I have enough left with which

1:59.3

to destroy your cities. That's all I need. American Soviet Union embarked in a thing called counter force,

2:06.8

which was in essence the belief that you could win, you could fight and win nuclear war.

...

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