Has the stock market bottomed out yet or are we seeing another false bottom?

Virtually all their markets also have within the rallies that sometimes these can be quite frequent and sometimes they can be quite strong.

I'm Alsanathan and this is exchanges at Goldman Sachs. After a summer stock market rally, the question on investors' minds is whether we're

entering a genuine market recovery.

To understand the latest equity moves and where the market is likely to go from here,

I'm sitting down with Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Equity Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe.

Peter, welcome back to the program.

Thank you so much, Ellison.

Please speak here.

So, Peter, you recently published research looking at the transitions

from Bear Markets to Bull Markets markets and you make the interesting point that it's

often just difficult to distinguish between a genuine inflection into a new bull market and a bear market rally and we can think of that

as just more of a temporary rise in an otherwise down market and that's really

difficult in particular in real time so what do you look at to assess that?

Yes, you're right in saying that. These things are always of course much easier to see in the

data with the benefits of hindsight. But in real time the reason that bear market rallies

look and feel like the genuine transition into a new bull market is that that beginning

of a new cycle nearly always starts with a strong quite

explosive rise in prices led by valuations going up because it nearly always happens during a period where economic

growth is still very weak and profits are declining.

And in that sense, the sharp rise you begin to see at the turning point

could be mistaken for a rally in a bear market and vice versa.

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