Austan Goolsbee on the 'Golden Path' to a Soft Landing

Odd Lots

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🗓️ 4 October 2023

⏱️ 61 minutes

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Summary

Can a soft landing be achieved? This is still a wide open question, given the highly uncertain macro environment. On the one hand, you have had a continued deceleration is most US inflation measures and the unemployment rate is below 4%. On the other hand, there are concerns over re-acceleration, more inflation, and a bond market where yields seem to be screaming higher day after day. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Austan Goolsbee, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, who sees the possibility of, in his words, a "golden path" -- or the "mother of all soft landings." We discuss why and how it can be achieved, what the Fed can do to deliver a positive outcome, and what the market is telling us about the work that still needs to be done.

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0:54.3	Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odlots podcast. I'm Joe Wyzenthal.
0:59.8	And I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, how about that, how about that Joltz report we just got?
1:05.2	How about them Joltz? How about them Joltz? Yeah, a lot stronger than expected, but I think there's,
1:10.7	there's a lot of uncertainty around Joltz from what I remember. Yeah, well, it's like,
1:15.2	hey, I mean, we're recording this October 3rd. These are August Joltz. So, you know,
1:21.0	already, I guess that's like two months ago. I'm always sort of skeptical about job openings data,
1:27.3	like what is it really measuring? But nonetheless, this is a, a measure, the number of job openings
1:32.8	that there are that people have been paying attention to. It had been coming down. It's
1:37.0	jumped back up. And then it just does raise this whole question of like, is the economy really
1:43.2	sort of decelerating into a nice, smooth, soft landing? Or are we still really hot? Well, I know
1:48.8	you were looking at Joltz, but I've been watching the bond market today because the other big
1:54.2	story in markets is of course the big bond sell off. The 30 year treasury yield now at the
2:00.0	highest since 2007. I think something like 4.8%. Yeah, that's pretty crazy. And there's a lot of
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