Atlanta Falcons 2022 NFL Sports Betting Preview
The Simple Handicap: Daily NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff
Adam Chernoff
4.8 • 1.3K Ratings
🗓️ 26 July 2022
⏱️ 12 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Preview Start: (0:50)
Jason Logan Seattle Atlanta Falcons: https://www.covers.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
1. This team is going to be awful. They lost Matt Ryan who was extremely stable at QB, they lost Ridley, their top wide receiver to playing DraftKings, and their second best WR Gage, to Tom Brady.
2. They have a young coach and play caller in Arthur Smith who is extremely conservative and ran the ball on early downs at a very high rate last season. He also shows few tendencies to want to be innovative on offense.
3. It is likely they commit to Marcus Mariota and not rookie QB Desmond Ridder from the draft.
4. This means Smith likely increases his run rate with Mariota’s mobility, their best skill player (Patterson) working out of the backfield, and a poor pass blocking offensive line.
5. The defense, specifically the secondary, could be sneaky good and finish the season around 13-16th. No cornerback duo on a 2022 roster allowed fewer combined yards than AJ Terrell and Casey Hayward who start 1-2 for ATL this season.
6. The market knows this team is likely to be the worst in football. You won’t find much value betting any of the season long props under.
The market has adjusted to their week one matchup against the Saints which has the lowest total on the board at 41. But, you might find is opportunity to bet the team under frequently week to week the rest of the season. The Falcons secondary could limit the speed at which opponents blow them out, if they happen to have a lead, Smith likely gets conservative and if playing from behind, it is tough to trust Mariota and the lack of skill players to come back.
Transcript
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| 0:00.6 | Good morning, everybody. |
| 0:01.9 | Today is Tuesday, July 26, continuing on with NFL team previews, day two of 32. |
| 0:08.9 | And I got to admit, it is not easy to get excited about this one whatsoever. |
| 0:13.5 | Today, talking about the Atlanta Falcons. |
| 0:16.4 | And I think you may very well need to absolutely go over to Covers.com and look at the written |
| 0:22.2 | preview by Jason Logan, also including quotes from Professional Better, the hitman himself. |
| 0:27.6 | The link is in the description of this episode. |
| 0:30.1 | They're going to have to help me out with this one, because in terms of being entertaining, |
| 0:33.7 | dynamic, offering a really well-rounded opinion, kind of tough to do with a team that is going |
| 0:39.9 | to be as bad as the Atlanta Falcons are ultimately going to be in 2022. |
| 0:44.9 | As always, with these team previews, I try to provide something that you can use not only going |
| 0:51.2 | into the first week of the season, but on a week to week basis. |
| 0:54.7 | I don't want to get stuck talking about futures and win totals. A lot of the value in those markets |
| 0:59.4 | has long gone. And as we see with the Falcons, lowest win total in the NFL, longest odds |
| 1:04.9 | for the Super Bowl, longest odds for the conference, extremely long odds for the division. |
| 1:09.6 | It's all reflected within the price. |
| 1:12.1 | You can't really go and bet this team under anywhere and think you have a ton of value. |
| 1:16.5 | If you go into the derivative market, sure, maybe you can find some there, but this is a bad |
| 1:20.7 | team and everybody knows it. What I do find interesting, and I want to bring up to sort of make |
| 1:27.1 | the case on the Falcons being just a massive underteam from week to week, is leaning on the staff that covers the team for the team. |
| 1:37.4 | And something that's unique about the Atlanta Falcons is just how many beat riders they have covering the team, how in depth a lot of |
| 1:45.7 | these beat writers ultimately go, and how easy it is to find all of their information on site. |
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