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The John Batchelor Show

#Astronomny: Sunspot guessing from the best and brightest. Bob Zimmerman BehindtheBlack.com

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 7 December 2023

⏱️ 4 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

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Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm John Bachelors, with my colleague Bob Zimmerman, he keeps the website behind the black.

0:09.0

We turn to space exploring, in particular the most famous sun in history, ours.

0:15.0

Bob, the solar cycle.

0:17.0

There are projections of the solar cycle, sunspots, appearing, sunspots disappearing.

0:22.0

Right now we're supposed to be heading to a solar maximum

0:26.2

I believe sometime in the year 25.

0:28.4

How we do it?

0:29.4

The key to this story is it the Sun is proving unequivocally that the solar scientist community

0:37.0

they understand nothing about the Sun and they actually try to hide this fact by making predictions and then revising their

0:44.2

predictions repeatedly so they always come out right at the end.

0:48.5

So the sun, I keep this track of this every month when no update its monthly graph I post it and then add details to make

0:56.6

give context.

0:58.3

And the son is not behaved as predicted.

1:01.6

Before this, the ramp-up to Solomaxom, there were two predictions. One

1:05.7

prediction said the Solomaxom would be very weak in a current 25. And another

1:10.0

prediction said it would occur at 25, it would be very very powerful and so

1:14.8

the sun for most of the last three years has been wrapping up to maximum

1:19.6

but has indicated it was going to be a more powerful maximum than the high prediction.

1:25.0

However, now it looks like it might not be as high as the high prediction, but it's going to be

1:31.3

high as the high prediction. so what are the scientists done these two groups that predicted things

1:36.7

back in 20 20 or so have now revised their predictions so they'll be closer to what the sun is actually doing and they can now crow we got it right

1:47.3

This is the analogy I point out this is like

...

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