Arthur Hayes Says, “Get your Bitcoin, and Get Out!”
Bankless
Bankless
4.7 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 22 March 2023
⏱️ 76 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
You might know Arthur Hayes as perhaps THE dominant financial creative writer in crypto. When Arthur Hayes drops an article, it commands the attention of basically everyone in the industry.
And he’s done it again with his new piece, “Kaiseki,” which outlines one of the most chaotic and critical times in the macro and monetary landscape that we’ve seen, at least since 2008.
In today’s episode, Arthur walks us through his essay, why he believes Balaji’s $1M Bitcoin bet is wrong, how he’s navigating these tumultuous times, and so much more.
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Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
6:27 Arthur’s Recent, “Kaiseki” Essay
13:09 Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)
18:08 Effect on the Banking Sector
24:30 Current State of the Banking Sector
30:44 Should We Support BTFP?
39:11 What’s Going to Happen to Crypto?
46:56 Sending Bitcoin to $1M
55:05 Effects on Expanding Variables
57:35 Who Takes the Loss?
1:00:00 Rampant Inflation Worldwide & Fiat
1:03:36 Swap Lines
1:06:07 Punchlines & Endgame
1:09:25 Everyone is a Speculator
1:10:49 What Will Arthur Hayes Do?
1:13:36 Closing & Disclaimers
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Resources:
Arthur Hayes
https://twitter.com/CryptoHayes
Arthur’s Recent, “Kaiseki” Essay
https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/kaiseki-b15230bdd09e
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Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | There's all these things that the average person needs that the government can't print, |
| 0:04.9 | and if they're just going to not allocate the losses for all this debt, which is essentially |
| 0:10.4 | debt is, I'm going to take the future and I'm going to spend it today, right? So we spent the future. |
| 0:15.4 | There's no more future, right? We have to pay for it. And so if you have money inside of the system, |
| 0:21.5 | you will pay for it. And it's implicit tax in anyone who saves and things that don't go up as fast |
| 0:28.0 | as the amount of money printed. And so that's the game. It creates a financial speculator out of |
| 0:32.5 | everyone, even if you don't think you're a speculator. You are a speculator. |
| 0:37.3 | Bankless Nation, we got Arthur Hayes on the podcast because it is one of those times where there is |
| 0:42.7 | a bunch of chaos in the macro world. Our banking sector is apparently completely underwater. |
| 0:49.2 | Bology Turin of Austin is claiming that Bitcoin is going to $1 million in |
| 0:53.6 | time of 90 days. And it's not a bet on Bitcoin. It's actually a bet on the hyperinflation of |
| 0:57.7 | the US dollar. And that is a very similar subject to what we are talking to Arthur Hayes today on |
| 1:03.3 | the show. Recently, Arthur, a prolific writer, has written another article, Kaiseki, we get into |
| 1:08.8 | why he titled that. But a little preview for this. Arthur runs through the last 15 years of |
| 1:14.3 | monetary and fiscal policy to get up to COVID. And then he runs through COVID up to now. And the |
| 1:20.6 | Fed rug poll of rising interest rates faster than they've ever had before to create a mass |
| 1:26.4 | insolvency in the banking sector. And Arthur walks us through this brand new thing, this brand new |
| 1:32.0 | credit facility out of the Federal Reserve, the bank term funding program, and really unpacks the |
| 1:37.2 | significance of this. Arthur's big claim here is that the bank term funding program, the BTFP, |
| 1:44.8 | is constrained in two ways. Only certain eligible assets are available to access this new credit |
| 1:50.8 | facility out of the Federal Reserve. And this new facility is only alive for one more year. |
| 1:55.8 | Arthur's big claim is that both of those two variables are about to increase in scope. And that is |
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