Are We Heading for a 2030s Depression? - Understanding Global Economic and Population Shifts

Money For the Rest of Us

J. David Stein

Economy, Economics, Investing Podcast, Business, Investing

4.3 • 1.3K Ratings

🗓️ 24 July 2024

⏱️ 32 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

What we can monitor and do now in preparation for a 2030s depression, which may or may not arrive.

Topics covered include:

Why ITR Economics has been predicting a 2030s depression for over a decade.
What are the early warning signs we can monitor for increasing risk of economic and financial turmoil
What are U.S. and global population predictions by the Congressional Budget Office and the United Nations
What is the status of Social Security and what would it take to make it more sustainable
What are the impacts of a slowing or shrinking population
How should we invest, and what other financial actions should we take in the face of long-term depression forecasts

Sponsors

Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off

Monarch Money – Get an extended 30-day free trial

Our Premium Products

Asset Camp

Money for the Rest of Us Plus

Show Notes

Top 5 Causes of the 2030s Great Depression—ITR Economics

The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054—Congressional Budget Office

Testimony on Social Security’s Finances—Congressional Budget Office

World Population Prospects 2024—The United Nations

World Population Prospects 2024: Graphs/Profiles—The United Nations

America is uniquely ill-suited to handle a falling population—The Economist

Suddenly There Aren’t Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed. by Greg Ip and Janet Adamy—The Wall Street Journal

Related Episodes

479: National Debt Master Class Finale – What To Do

468: Lessons from Japan’s 34 Years of Stock Market Underperformance

395: How Population Trends Will Impact Growth, Inflation, Investing and Well Being

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	Welcome to Money for the rest of us. This is a personal finance show on money, how it works, how to invest it, and how to live without worrying about it.
0:09.0	I'm your host David Stein. Today is episode 487. It's titled Global Economic and Population Shifts.
0:17.7	Are we heading for a 2030s depression? A month or so ago I received an email from a listener. He had just read a book titled
0:28.6	Prosperity in the Age of Decline by Brian and Alan Bolleu. This book came out 10 years ago and in the book they are
0:39.2	predicting a great depression in the 2030s. They go through their analysis and this
0:46.8	listener's question is do I agree that we're going to have a great depression in the 2030s and why or why not and what should we as
0:56.5	investors do to protect ourselves if there's going to be this type of economic decline.
1:04.4	Brian and Alan Bolio are principal economist at ITR economics.
1:12.2	This is the oldest privately held continuously operating economic research
1:18.2	and consulting firm in the U.S. according to the website. They also say their predictive ability or their historical track
1:26.2	record in predicting economic events is close to 95%. They have a table on their website that is their record and it shows different economic
1:38.9	indicators such as GDP, industrial production, says their accuracy each year is 95 to 98%.
1:47.5	I don't have access to the actual predictions, so I don't know if that record is that accurate. It seems a little high, but maybe it is.
1:56.3	But we're not worried about whether they're able to predict the economy that accurately.
2:01.3	Most firms and individuals are not. So when I see a 99% success
2:06.6	rate in predicting economic data, it raises some red flags and I want to dig deeper but I didn't find anything other than this
2:15.2	table. I did spend some meaningful time on their website trying to understand the
2:20.6	basis for their 2030s Great Depression prediction.
2:25.0	What I do like about their site is they're not bombastic.
2:28.0	There's no fear-mongering.
2:30.0	It's level-headed, but there are a lot of economic generalities.
2:34.2	I'll link to one of their blog post, top five causes for the 2030's Great Recession.
	...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Previous episode | Next episode

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from J. David Stein, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of J. David Stein and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.