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More or Less: Behind the Stats

Are there more possible games of chess than atoms in the universe?

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.63.5K Ratings

🗓️ 20 January 2024

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

We investigate how the vast possibilities in a game of chess compare to the vastness of the observable universe.

Dr James Grime helps us understand the Shannon number – a famous figure on the chess side of the equation - and astronomer Professor Catherine Heymans takes on the entire observable universe.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Debbie Richford and Nathan Gower Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Andy Fell Editor: Richard Vadon

Transcript

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0:00.0

Thank you for downloading the more or less podcast. We are Weekly Guide to the Numbers in the News and in Life, and I'm Tim Harford.

0:07.0

This week we're going to be grappling with some mind-bogglingly enormous numbers,

0:15.7

way beyond the millions, billions and trillions, even beyond the quadrillians, quintillions or

0:20.5

sextillions, to figures that are incredibly hard for the human mind to comprehend.

0:26.4

Listener Prashant Rao wrote to the program after an interesting claim he'd come across in a novel.

0:31.6

Literary criticism is normally our source for figures, but all

0:35.6

number-based queries are welcome here and more or less. In the book, The Midnight Library

0:41.8

by Matt Haig, a character says there are more possible ways to play a game of chess than the amount of atoms in the observable universe.

0:52.0

The internet is littered with articles and blogs that repeat this claim, so we thought

0:57.0

we'd examine it. First step, let's look at chess. What can we say about the number of possible ways to play a game?

1:05.0

We asked mathematician Dr James Grimes, a content curator at the Discovery Center, Maths City.

1:12.0

So the estimate that we've got is... Discovery Center, Maths City.

1:13.0

So the estimate that we've got is a very big number, which is 10 to the power 120.

1:19.5

So it does imagine a piece of paper with a 1 and 120 zeros after it. It's a absolutely huge number.

1:26.2

It's called the Shannon number, which is named after Claude Shannon.

1:30.4

Claude Shannon was a pioneer of computer science, someone who should be mentioned in the same breath as Alan Turing.

1:38.0

And Claude Shannon was considering how he could program a computer to play chess.

1:44.0

What would that involve, how difficult a problem that would be?

1:48.0

So you could program your computer to consider the next move and all the possible next moves it could do and it could pick the best one.

1:57.5

Or even going to an extreme, it could start from the beginning and just have a look at every possible game and

2:04.2

then pick the best move to start with but that involves thinking about every

2:09.0

possible chess game and that's where Shannon started to estimate how many possible chess games that are.

...

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