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Hello and welcome to the Americano podcast. This is an election year. Will Donald Trump be re-elected?

What is going on with the Democrats? And has America gone even more crazy? We'll be discussing all of these things and more.

More than once a week because we don't feel you have enough Americano in your life. I'm joined today by Marcus Roberts, who is head of international

projects at UGov, and we're going to be looking at the latest polls. CNN yesterday produced a very

dramatic looking poll that showed Biden 16 points ahead nationally.

Now, we've spoken about the usefulness or not of national polls before,

but that nonetheless seems to be quite a dramatic shift in Biden's favour.

Yes, I'd agree with that.

Has there been a shift to the advantage of the Biden

campaign since the debates? Yes. Has there been a further shift since President Trump was

sadly hospitalized? Yes, that's the case as well. Do I think that the shift has been 16 points

as CNN were reporting, or 14 points and 11 points, respectively,

as some other pollsters have put out in the last 24 hours, no. And here's why. There's such a thing

as partisan non-response bias. And what partisan non-response bias is, is when the people who are answering your survey

are markedly different from the people who aren't answering your survey. In other words,

you have a sample problem. And when I see numbers like a 16-point jump out of nowhere in a poll

after some very bad news for one candidate in an

election, what I immediately think of is the sample of that poll actually accurate, or are

...