Is April the month globalization ended for planet Earth?

I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,173 points, 2 and 3 quarters percent right now.

The S&P down 3.3 percent.

The NASDAQ really down 4.6 percent. Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX index of

stock market volatility, up 27 percent at the moment. The bond market is up sharply with the higher

risk of recession now, pulling the 10-year interest rate down to 4.03 percent. Many market players

say the tariffs are higher than they were banking on.

Accordingly, economists and investors are now reconsidering recession. Diane Swank is chief

economist at the audit tax and advisory firm, KPMG. Hey, Diane. Good morning. Well, with these new

import taxes, how does that affect the prognosis for the U.S. economy?

Well, if they stay in place and we do expect they will be in place for some time and they trigger an escalation in trade tensions, which we also expect, which will hurt our exports as well, we are now expecting the U.S. economy will slip into recession. The risk of recession

just went up dramatically with inflation as well, and that is stagflation. This is still a very

difficult situation for the Federal Reserve because it's very hard for the Fed to tease out

what part of tariffs are boosting inflation when it still has yet to be derailed at the same time, dampening demand.

And that is, you know, just a very tough position to be in at the state of the game.

Higher risk of recession, do you think, in 2025, this year? It could easily come this year

because of the impact on production and the disruptions to supply chains in consumer demand. You put

them all together, and it makes the U.S. economy smaller, which is a recession. Economist Diane Swank,

KPMG. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

Consumers are expected to pay for a lot of the new import taxes, with, for instance, tariffs on goods out of China up 34 percent now.

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