Alternative Indicators: What Big-Rig Truck Sales Reveal About the U.S. Economy

WSJ What’s News

The Wall Street Journal

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🗓️ 17 November 2025

⏱️ 11 minutes

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Summary

Is U.S. manufacturing driving off a cliff or into the sunset—and taking the economy with it? Look no further than sales of heavy trucks. Trucking companies buy more of these big rigs when they expect they will have more stuff to ship, so declines in heavy truck sales often match up to economic contractions dating back to the 1960s. Now the data show that sales have been going downhill since 2023, falling off more dramatically since June of this year. Host Alex Ossola talks with Bob Tita, who covers manufacturing for The Wall Street Journal, and Avery Vise, vice president of trucking for data analysis and forecasting firm FTR Transportation Intelligence, about what that says about this moment in the economy, and what might be clouding the picture. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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0:28.6	real estate professionals. Sometimes when I'm driving down the highway, it can feel like there's
0:33.3	nothing else on the road but these huge trucks.
0:46.4	A lot of them have branding on the side, retailers like Walmart or Amazon or shipping companies like UPS. But most big trucks whizzing by don't give much indication at all
0:52.0	about what's inside. These big rigs aren't just carrying clothes and appliances and toilet paper.
0:57.8	They're carrying the raw materials and components for these and other products.
1:02.2	Basically, if it needs to be moved around within the U.S.,
1:05.2	it's probably being moved by truck.
1:09.5	Most companies hire trucking companies to do that shipping, and those trucking companies need big
1:15.0	enough fleets to meet demand.
1:17.1	So you could see how sales of these heavy trucks could be a sign of how much companies
1:21.8	need to ship, and so how much the economy is buzzing.
1:25.9	It's an indicator, certainly, of freight activity, and freight activity is an indicator of the sort of general economy.
1:33.3	That's my colleague Bob Tida, who covers manufacturing for the journal.
1:37.3	Historically, the data due what Bob says, all the way back to the 1960s.
1:42.0	Declines in heavy truck sales often match up to economic contractions.
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