Alternative Indicators: Can Nevada Employment Predict Where the Economy is Headed?

WSJ What’s News

The Wall Street Journal

News, Daily News

4 • 4K Ratings

🗓️ 10 November 2025

⏱️ 12 minutes

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Summary

Since the early 2000s, a fall in employment in the state of Nevada has preceded a broader U.S. recession. It makes sense why—the economic fortunes of Las Vegas, which make up a big part of the state’s overall economy, are intimately tied to consumers’ comfort with spending. Host Alex Ossola speaks with Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, about what the state data shows now, and what it says about the health of the U.S. economy. This is part one of our four-part series on alternative economic indicators. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Liddle's deluxe mince pies are here.
0:02.7	They're buttery, crumbly, good housekeeping institute taste approved and only 149 with Little Plus. Is there anything more Christmassy? Maybe if they were made in the North Pole? Liddle. More to value. 18 plus Gb only was stocks last term supply. See little.orghuryk slash LPTV. Offer ends 19th of 11th, 25. If I met you at a cocktail party, and I asked you how the US economy is doing right now,
0:24.9	what would you say? It's actually kind of a hard question to answer.
0:30.2	There are signs that things are going well. Through the end of October, the S&P 500 was up
0:35.5	more than 16% for the year. Credit card data shows that consumers just
0:40.4	keep spending, and the latest GDP numbers were strong. But there are also signs of weakness.
0:47.2	Prices keep rising. Consumer sentiment recently fell near record lows. The jobs market has slowed.
0:56.0	Manufacturing is lagging. Even the Fed doesn't know where the economy is going,
0:58.6	fueling its debate over whether to keep cutting rates.
1:02.0	Add to that, the government shutdown,
1:03.6	which has made official data temporarily unavailable,
1:06.6	and makes for a pretty confusing picture.
1:09.2	So, some of those in the know are turning to alternative data to help them take the temperature of the economy.
1:15.6	Here's WSJ Investing columnist Spencer Jacob.
1:18.6	It really always does make sense to look at alternative indicators.
1:22.6	Most economic indicators that you get from the government are pretty backward looking. It's old news
1:28.4	already. And so it's hard to find things that really give you an indication of the future.
1:33.5	That's what some private sector indicators have been used for that more. And all of them,
1:38.6	they can be signal or they can be noise. But there are all sorts of things in the economy from
1:43.1	the private sector that are not necessarily packaged up and tied up with the bow, but there are all sorts of things in the economy from the private sector that are not
1:44.8	necessarily packaged up and tied up with the bow, but they can be really, really useful.
1:49.8	This is a special episode of What's News.
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