ALO18: Asset Allocation a la carte ft. David Kelly
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 6 December 2023
⏱️ 63 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a big picture perspective on the outlook for the global economy and the implications for asset allocation. We discuss why David is upbeat on the outlook for the US economy with a key part of his optimism resting on the fact that no individual sectors appears stretched or out of balance, which is normally the case prior to a recession. The recent rise in bond yields has been a key focus in markets – we discuss what has driven this and why David is optimistic on the outlook for inflation and bonds looking ahead. We also discuss asset allocation more broadly, the outlook for the 60-40 portfolio and the longer term themes (such as the investment implications of climate change and the shift to more active industrial policy) which are addressed in JP Morgan Asset Management’s recent Long Term Capital Markets Assumptions publication.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:42 - Introduction to David Kelly
05:44 - What has become of the recession?
08:38 - Are we missing an accident?
11:09 - Why is the saving rate in the U.S. so low?
13:29 - Is this cycle unusual compared to the past?
14:52 - Are central bankers becoming arrogant?
17:15 - What happened to the bond market?
19:31 - High debt and high...
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | One of the sad ironies today in America is that if you add up the unemployment and the inflation |
| 0:11.9 | ratio rate, people use to call that the misery index, that misery index is lower today than |
| 0:16.6 | it's been 75% of the time of the last 50 years. But people feel more miserable about the state of the world than they have 93% of the time. |
| 0:24.9 | The index of consumer sentiment is almost as low as it's ever been over the 50 year period. |
| 0:29.7 | So whatever we're doing in the economy, we may be achieving growth, we may be achieving |
| 0:33.4 | low unemployment, we may be bringing inflation down. |
| 0:35.9 | But there's not only people happy. |
| 0:38.7 | And I guess if it doesn't make people happy or contented or fulfilled, what's the point? Imagine spending an hour with the |
| 0:46.8 | world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes, and their |
| 0:52.1 | failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, |
| 0:57.5 | the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world so you can take |
| 1:01.9 | your manager, due diligence, or investment career to the next level. Before we begin today's |
| 1:07.0 | conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. All the discussion we'll have about |
| 1:11.2 | investment performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even infer |
| 1:16.5 | anything about future performance. Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial |
| 1:21.1 | loss with all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific |
| 1:25.8 | risks from the investment manager about their |
| 1:27.8 | product before you make investment decisions. |
| 1:30.7 | Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Nealz Kostrup Larson. |
| 1:39.0 | For me, the best part of my podcasting journey has been the opportunity to speak to a huge range |
| 1:44.8 | of extraordinary investors from all around the world. |
| 1:47.8 | In this series, I have invited one of them, namely Alan Dunn, to host a series of in-depth |
... |
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