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Macro Voices

All-Stars #35 Luke Gromen: FF>IOER Means Balance Sheet Capacity Used Up

Macro Voices

Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

Business, Investing, Business:investing

4.83.4K Ratings

🗓️ 22 July 2019

⏱️ 21 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

All-Star Luke Gromen responds to Jeff Snider's All-Stars appearance last week, sharing a different view on the significance of Fed Funds exceeding IOER. Luke says it’s about domestic private sector balance sheet capacity. Link: http://bit.ly/2XVNVmh

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is a special edition of Macrovoises with hedge fund manager Eric Townsend.

0:14.2

The premier financial podcast targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family

0:19.8

offices, and other sophisticated investors.

0:23.0

Now for this special edition of Macrovoises, here's hedge fund manager Eric Townsend.

0:30.0

Macrovoises All Stars episode number 35 was recorded on July 22nd, 2019.

0:36.8

I'm Eric Townsend. All Stars Luke Groman is back with us today. Luke, what's caught your attention

0:42.4

this week? Hey Eric, thanks for having me on against. Great catching up. What's caught my attention

0:47.2

recently has been the degree of confusion about why the Fed is still likely to cut rates next week

0:52.9

despite the better than expected job numbers three weeks ago, followed by last week's better than

0:57.7

expected retail sales number. I've read a number of articles talking about how the Fed is

1:02.7

cherry picking data to arrive at the need for a rate cut. What I find fascinating is that still

1:08.1

virtually no one is discussing what we think is the real reason for the Fed cutting rates, which is that

1:13.2

US fiscal deficits are increasingly being financed by the US domestic private sector.

1:18.0

And as we've discussed in our last couple conversations, the true message of Fed funds rates

1:23.2

going over interest on excess reserves back on March 20th, 2019 and staying there ever since

1:28.0

is that the US private sector does not have enough balance sheet to finance US government deficits

1:32.1

without the Fed's help. And so, you know, in our view, the Fed is cutting rates to provide that help

1:36.9

to the US private sector and financing US government deficits. Luke, I'm glad you brought up this

1:42.2

topic of Fed funds going over I O E R. In last week's Macrovoises All Stars discussion with Jeff

1:48.5

Snyder, Jeff mentioned the importance of Fed funds going over I O E R as well. I'm curious, Luke,

1:54.5

did you happen to catch that interview and what were your thoughts on one of Jeff's major

1:59.0

conclusions that banks are afraid of something out there, which is the reason perhaps that Jeff

...

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