AI will change the labor market forever | Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research
Full Signal
Phil Rosen
4.8 • 18 Ratings
🗓️ 9 December 2025
⏱️ 39 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Stephanie Roth is the chief economist at Wolfe Research, and was previously an economist at JPMorgan. She joined Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss how AI is changing jobs and the labor market, whether AI is driving productivity gains, Big Tech’s capex plans, its impact on young people finding jobs, comparisons to dot-com, and what investors are missing today.
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0:00 - Intro
0:30 - Labor market outlook
2:50 - AI and layoffs
3:57 - AI driving new jobs, productivity
6:30 - Broad AI adoption in economy
7:15 - Youth unemployment
11:00 - Public & Generated Assets
12:07 - AI capex and GDP
15:30 - Economic vs. asset price bubble
16:55 - AI isn’t dot-com bubble
17:50 - What investors misunderstand on AI
19:16 - K-shaped economy
22:55 - Consumer spending
25:55 - Inflation and tariffs
26:55 - Affordability and consumer sentiment
28:00 - Bias of sentiment surveys
30:30 - New Fed Chair, Fed independence
33:55 - White House policy
36:48 - What economists got wrong on tariffs
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | What's up, guys? On today's episode of Full Signal, I sit down with Stephanie Roth. |
| 0:04.5 | She is the chief economist at Wolf Research, and she publishes amazing research on the labor |
| 0:10.0 | market, the Fed, AI, and asset prices. In this conversation, we talk about all of that, |
| 0:15.9 | where she thinks the economy is going next year, what the data are saying about jobs, |
| 0:20.8 | tariffs, and artificial |
| 0:22.1 | intelligence, productivity booms, and much more. I hope you enjoy this conversation. |
| 0:28.4 | Stephanie, all the data I'm looking at looks very bullish to me. Can you give us your |
| 0:33.8 | bird's eye view on markets and sort of where we're going from here? |
| 0:40.7 | It's funny that you say that the data looks bullish to you because I would say that's not consistent with most investors that I speak with. They look at the data and they have kind of a |
| 0:44.1 | negative spin on it. Tell me more. So I would say, especially when it comes to the labor market, |
| 0:49.7 | there's real concerns about the trajectory of the labor market from here. Our expectation is that it will |
| 0:55.1 | be a bullish spin, but you look at things like challenge or job cuts or the job cuts announcements |
| 1:00.2 | that are coming out. People are putting a negative spin on a lot of this stuff. The thing is, |
| 1:05.0 | the economy is likely to turn from here, which will then result in pick up in the economy, |
| 1:13.1 | potentially a broadening out in some of the cyclical areas of the market, which you're already starting to see to some extent. In our sense |
| 1:16.7 | is you'll probably just see more of that. And for the next three months or so, you're probably |
| 1:20.2 | going to see the cyclical trade continue to sort of broaden out on the back of the data that |
| 1:24.4 | have come out recently. What do you think investors are misunderstanding |
| 1:28.2 | about the data? I think it's the labor market is probably the number one thing. And that ties to |
| 1:34.8 | the consumer as well. So on the labor market, the trends over the summer have been soft, |
| 1:39.4 | incredibly soft. But that's forgetting the fact that that was only a couple months after |
| 1:43.7 | an incredible shock to certainty. |
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