AI is fueling a stock market boom but taking jobs
Full Signal
Phil Rosen
4.8 • 18 Ratings
🗓️ 12 November 2025
⏱️ 39 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Kevin Gordon is the head of macro research and strategy at Charles Schwab's Center for Financial Research. He joined Phil Rosen on Full Signal to discuss the top-heavy bull market, comparisons to the dot-com bubble, the K-shaped economy, signals from alternative economic data, and more.
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 - Intro
0:27 - Concentration in stock market
3:33 - Top-heavy market as 'new normal'
5:40 - AI vs. dot-com bubble
9:43 - AI driving layoffs
13:46 - White-collar recession
17:12 - How Kevin uses AI at Schwab
18:32 - Alternative job market data
21:24 - Labor market cycles
23:27 - Economists have been wrong all year
26:08 - Vibecession vs. vibepression
29:00 - K-shaped economy
33:36 - Fed rate cuts
36:13 - Where stocks go in 2026
#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | What's up guys? On this episode of Full Signal, I'm joined by Kevin Gordon, head of macro research at Charles Schwab. |
| 0:06.9 | We talk about where the stock market is going next year, the government shutdown and the data blackout, |
| 0:12.4 | whether we're in a recession or a vibe session, and much more. It's great to get Kevin's insights because he works in the cutting edge of research in one of the biggest |
| 0:21.0 | institutions in finance. I hope you enjoy this conversation. Kevin, I wanted to get into your |
| 0:28.1 | big picture view on markets. We just are ending a government shutdown. The S&P 500 could see another |
| 0:33.9 | 20% year for the third year in a row. Give us your lay of the land here. |
| 0:38.8 | Sure. So, well, I'll say we could be ending a shutdown. Still have to get through the, |
| 0:42.3 | through the house. I think that, you know, as we look to really just, you know, a handful of weeks |
| 0:48.5 | left for the year, my focus more is sort of on how this concentration issue in the market resolves itself a bit. |
| 0:57.0 | And, you know, this has been a feature of the market for a while where you've got the 10 largest |
| 1:01.5 | stocks in the S&P 500 making up somewhere north, just slightly north of 40% of the index's market |
| 1:07.5 | cap. |
| 1:08.5 | That in and of itself is not as concerning to me because that's been more |
| 1:12.0 | the feature of this market as the mega caps have grown over time as they've dominated, not just |
| 1:15.9 | in a price sense, but also in an earning sense. When I look at concentration risk, I look at it |
| 1:21.3 | from the performance side of things. So as an example, you look at the end of October, by the |
| 1:27.1 | end of that month, you have fewer than |
| 1:29.0 | 30% of the members in the S&P 500 outperforming the index on a rolling three-month basis. |
| 1:34.0 | I like to use that window as a gauge of kind of more near-term outperformance and whether |
| 1:39.1 | the market is broadening. |
| 1:41.1 | That share is incredibly low relative to history, that sub 30% statistic. |
| 1:45.0 | Not in and of itself, sort of an Armageddon message for the market, but what it really exposed was more fragility outside of the MAG 7 or the top 10 or the AI trade, especially as you move up the large cap spectrum. |
... |
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