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In this week's game of economic jenga, we've got interest rates, tariffs, and trade deals.

You get to go first.

From American public media, this is Marketplay.

In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Rizzell. It is Friday today, July the 25th. Good as always to have you along, everybody. No shortage of things to talk about that have happened in the past five days

in this economy. A mere seven minutes to do it. David Gura is at Bloomberg. Rachel Siegel is

at the Washington Post. Hey, you two. Hey, Kai.

Hi, Kai. Mr. Gura, we start with you, and I'm going to preface it by saying this. So for a number of months now, I've been asking the various and sundry folks who agree to come on this program on Fridays to characterize this economy. And they've all said, well, you know, it's kind of teetering. We're sort of, we're just waiting for the other shoe to drop. And it has yet to actually drop, right? There are tariffs out there, but consumers still are

spending and buying and, and, and that's interesting and good. But piece in the Wall Street Journal

today that pointed out that companies are absorbing a lot of the tariff costs so far. See also General Motors, $1.1 billion, they said.

And I wonder if that changes your characterization of this economy right now.

Yeah, the open question is how long companies are continued to do this. And so you bring up GM,

we saw it from Stalantis, another carmaker VW today, as well, all of them citing tariffs as a factor that's weighing on their bottom line. So we are seeing it manifest itself. We're coming up on a week that's going to be extremely busy for economic data, yes, but also for corporate earnings. This is going to be, I think, the busiest week of earnings season when companies tell us how they've been doing and how they expect to do. I have a colleague, Sean Donan, who covers trade, and he had a great analogy. He said, think if the economy is having a cold. There's going to be this kind of sustained difficulty the economy is going to face as this tariff war continues as this trade war continues. So I think we're beginning to see it. You're right. It didn't have the kind of immediate effect. Some folks forecasted it would, but it is beginning to crop up in the data. We are seeing more and more companies talk about it. And, of course, as we have from the very beginning, we've seen consumers who are very worried about the effect that this is going to have on their bottom line. And so it's affecting sentiment. And the other thing we're starting to see, or at least that appears to be making itself clear, Rachel Siegel, is that give or take-ish, the baseline tariff rate in this economy now is going to be 15%, which on the face of it, and in response to what the president has said of 25 and 50 and 145 percent, you know, 15 percent sounds pretty good.

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